10. Schiavello really does his homework.

It’d be one thing if Schiavello just did minimal work and got the standard fare but I have to give him credit; he came in with his full arsenal ready and was insanely prepped. You have to give him his propers for it: many people in this scenario wouldn’t and he did.

9. Dana’s office is fairly remarkable … and profane

I find an odd humor in that Dana White has profanities made into art all over his office. It’s just somehow appropriate.

8. Schiavello may not throw a lot of hard questions out but he gets interesting ones in

The one thing you have to accept with Schiavello is that he isn’t going full bore after someone. If you’re looking for contention or very tough questions in this format from Schiavello you’re not going to get it; but he’s not going to throw out nothing but softballs either. He lives in that valley of interesting questions; he throws out a lot of ones that get unique insights into people.

7. Dana’s insights into the Pride sale were interesting … but not enough

It was the seminal moment in the UFC/Pride war and I wish they could’ve done a whole hour on it. There’s so much that hasn’t been reported in as much depth as it should be and Schiavello brought out a lot about it from Dana.

6. True/False gave us a real insight into Dana’s lifestyle

Schiavello did his homework and got some great stories about Dana and his life in the MMA promotion business. There’s been an awful lot of rumors about Dana in the past and he was head on in tackling them all down. His stories about gambling in Vegas, for example, were absolutely fascinating.

5. Dana White’s position on Fedor still feels personal when he discusses it

If you want to use a “Moby Dick” reference, or “Moby White” more comically, Dana’s Ahab and Fedor’s the giant white whale he was obsessed about killing it. He may not have any regrets but I think if there’s one thing he could change about the history of the UFC it would be that Fedor would’ve fought inside the cage at some point in his career.

4. Dana’s family life is intensely private

For someone who lives his life in public as much as he does it’s interesting to see that Dana keeps his family out of the spotlight. His reasoning is solid, of course, but it’s such a contrast to how profoundly public his life is.

3. Sixty minutes flew by

It was either very well edited or a strong conversation with no dead spots. I’ll guess the latter, of course, but I’d love to see the full unedited interview. There had to have been some really great stuff that didn’t quite make the cut I’d love to have heard.

2. Schiavello would be a natural for the UFC’s PBP roster

It’s kind of a shame that the UFC only can have two primary PBP guys for their broadcasts. Schiavello and Mauro Ranallo are two guys who would be perfect for the UFC, if only for one night.

1. The early days of the UFC weren’t covered … and we’re better off for it

The one thing every in depth interview with Dana White always has at least half of it dealing with the early Zuffa days, where the Zuffa mythology is often inserted instead of the actual events, and Schiavello sidestepped most of it entirely. It’s a real smart move because we’ve heard all about the dark days of Zuffa for so many times that there’s no new ground to cover. The fact that it was basically ignored was kind of nice; we got new information, not just new takes on old stories.
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comments to MMA Junkie that didn’t help his cause:

“Nate voiced a personal opinion about an incident that took place involving Bryan Caraway in which he chased Dana all over Twitter to try to get a bonus, which was taken away from Pat Healy, got the bonus, and then had the nerve to go back out there and bash the guy and talk s–t about weed-smoking and how much he hates it and how it’s wrong, which was, at best, a s–t move on his side,” Kogan said.

“Guess what? The word f—-t, at least in Northern California, and where Nate is from, means bitch. It means you’re a little punk. It has nothing to do with homosexuals at all. So when Nate made the comment that he made, he didn’t make it in reference to homosexuals or calling Caraway a homosexual. He just said it was a bitch move.”

“I’m sure some people got offended, and hopefully this article will explain what his intent was. But how people view it is how people view it. I can’t control that. His intent was not to make a derogatory term toward homosexuals. He used the word to refer to a punk or a bitch.”

Here’s the thing: it’s not that what Diaz said was necessarily wrong. We all understood what Diaz was saying: he didn’t mean to imply anything about Caraway’s sexuality and such. His intentions were pure, in the way a Diaz can have pure intentions for lack of a better word, but his word choice was obviously poor. We understood what he was saying in spirit. Its locker room talk, nothing more, and anyone who’s spent more than 30 seconds as an athlete in a real capacity understands his intentions. It wasn’t a hateful one towards the LGBT community; it was one born of ignorance that’s slowly going away but still exists, somehow.

I don’t mean to condone what he said, of course, but there’s a place where it comes from that anyone can understand.

His word choice wasn’t nearly as bad as Matt Mitrione’s “hilarious” comments towards the transgender community, of course, and what he said wasn’t as “hilarious” as Quinton “Rampage” Jackson showing people how to pick up women for sexual relations with chloroform. All three are equally bad life choices to make, of course, but in the long run his was the easiest to solve.

All Nate had to do was publicly apologize for his comments, send out a generic press release to all involved and probably attend sensitivity training. If he does that, and nothing else, we’ll have forgiven him in six months when he’s fighting on a Facebook prelim as final punishment. Professional athletes and high level celebrities wade through controversies like this fairly easy, usually, with apologies and counseling. Look at recent UFC fighters who’ve been fired, suspended or disciplined.

Miguel Torres, who really likes rape jokes apparently, did a mea culpa the first time he got fired for making them. So did Forrest Griffin and Rashad Evans, who joked about rape (again) and the Penn State child abuse scandal respectively. They all did their penance and apologized, publicly and profusely, and they’ve all subsequently forgiven.

Diaz, on the other hand, double downed with stupidity by letting his manager go out and try to explain his behavior instead of a blanket apology. If he would’ve come out and said “Nathan didn’t mean that in an offensive manner, of course, and recognizes that his poor word choices were offensive. He apologizes to Bryan Caraway for his hateful words and he’s going to seek to remedy his actions with some counseling as well as a donation to an LGBT charity” all is forgiven in a matter of months.

We understand what he meant, of course, but what he said was offensive and hurtful to a lot of people. “Fag” is akin to a racial slur; once you use it you can’t take it back.
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Vitor Belfort and Luke Rockhold headline in a five-round middleweight bout while Ronaldo Souza makes his UFC debut against Chris Camozzi in the night’s co-main event. There are several undercard fighters coming off losses in their previous fights, and there will be a lot of battling to maintain spots on the UFC roster. There are a lot of fighters on the card who could make this list, but we will highlight five individuals who are in much need of a win as we present The Cut List- UFC On FX 8 edition.

John Cholish (8-2, 1-1 UFC)
Who he’s fighting: Gleison Tibau
Why he’s on the list: Cholish will be stepping into the Octagon for the third time to take on the veteran Tibau, who will be fighting for the 19th time in the UFC. Tibau has struggled a little lately, having lost two of his last three fights, and he could have found himself on this very list, but Cholish finds himself in a tough fight as Tibau is one of the toughest lightweights the UFC currently has on its’ roster. Cholish has been out of action for just over a year due to injuries and is coming off a decision loss to Danny Castillo at UFC On FOX 3 in May 2012. Cholish had won eight straight fights prior to the loss to Castillo, which was capped by a TKO victory over Mitch Clarke at UFC 140 in December 2011 in Cholish’s UFC debut. Cholish has scored seven of his eight wins by knockout or submission. Finishing Tibau will be tough though as Tibau has only been finished three times in 35 career fights, and not since July 2008.
Chances of being cut with loss: 80%. Cholish is a solid lightweight but injuries have kept him from making his move up the lightweight roster. That lightweight roster is very crowded right now, and losses in two of his three UFC fights could send Cholish on his way out of the UFC. Tibau is a tough opponent for Cholish to be taking on in his third UFC fight, and a loss would almost make a cut from the roster likely.

Paulo Thiago (14-5, 4-5 UFC)
Who he’s fighting: Michel Prazeres
Why he’s on the list: Thiago exploded onto the UFC scene in a big way when he scored a knockout win over Josh Koscheck at UFC 95 in February 2009, a win that temporarily moved Koscheck out of the title picture. Thiago was about to break into the title picture himself with wins in two of his next three fights, but since then he has gone 1-4 over his past five fights to find himself on the brink of being released from the UFC roster. His last two fights could not have gone worse for Thiago either as he was knocked out cold by Siyar Bahadurzada at UFC On FUEL TV 2 in April 2012, and he was thoroughly dominated by Dong Hyun Kim at UFC On FUEL TV 6 in November. Thiago has lost to some of the toughest the UFC has had to offer as his others losses came to Jon Fitch, Diego Sanchez and Martin Kampmann, but with just one win in the last three years, Thiago is in desperate need of a win.
Chances of being cut with loss: 100%. Without a doubt, a loss will likely signal the end of Thiago in the UFC for the time being. His opponent, Michel Prazeres, is making his UFC debut as a short-notice injury replacement, so Thiago will be a big favorite in the fight. A loss to a fighter making a debut on short notice would not help Thiago’s standing within the UFC’s welterweight roster, so he needs a win. A loss is the end of the road for him.

Roger Hollett (13-4, 0-1 UFC)
Who he’s fighting: Fabio Maldonado
Why he’s on the list: Hollett is making just his second appearance in the UFC but is in search of his first UFC win after coming up short in his debut. He had a tough debut opponent in Matt Hamill, and Hamill took home the win over Hollett at UFC 152 in September. Making the loss even tougher was the fact that the fight was rather uneventful and received a lot of boos from the crowd in Toronto, so a loss in a boring fight does not give Hollett much in terms of leeway as he heads into his second bout with the promotion. Hollett was slated to return to action in January at UFC On FX 7 but a torn bicep took him off the card, where he was scheduled to take on Wagner Prado. Hollett now gets a tough matchup against Maldonado, who has shown major toughness in the UFC during his four fights. Maldonado could have found himself on this cut list as well as he is in the middle of a three-fight losing streak.
Chances of being cut with loss: 75%. Hollett battled contract issues with Bellator just to make his UFC debut, which may have factored into his performance against Hamill. He makes this list over Maldonado for the pure fact that Maldonado is the slight favorite in the fight, but the loser of their fight is most likely to be cut. Hollett needs to put on a better performance than the flat performance he gave against Hamill and score a win if he is going to keep his spot on the roster.

Jussier Formiga (14-2, 0-1 UFC)
Who he’s fighting: Chris Cariaso
Why he’s on the list: Formiga, better known to fans as Jussier da Silva, is one of the top flyweights in the world, which makes his inclusion on this list rather surprising. He only has two career losses- to Ian McCall and to John Dodson, a win that catapulted Dodson into a title fight against Demetrious Johnson in January. Formiga may have gotten that title fight had he defeated Dodson, but now he finds himself looking to avoid his first-ever two-fight losing streak on Saturday when he takes on Cariaso during the Facebook portion of the preliminary card. Formiga won his first nine fights before his first loss to McCall, and followed that with five straight victories before the setback against Dodson. Formiga’s last four wins all came by submission, and he will need to shake off the Octagon jitters that seemed to plague him in his fight against Dodson.
Chances of being cut with loss: 50%. The flyweight division is very thin right now, and Formiga is one of the best at 125 pounds in the world. You would think an 0-2 record in a division with less than 15 fighters would still give you another fight, but Ulysses Gomez was released with an 0-2 record at 125 pounds. Formiga needs a win and Cariaso is a very tough fighter to defeat. A win saves Formiga and could put Cariaso close to being cut, but a loss would not help Formiga at all. He needs a win.

Jeremy Larsen (8-3 1 NC, 0-1 UFC)
Who he’s fighting: Lucas Martins
Why he’s on the list: Larsen competed on season 15 of “The Ultimate Fighter” as a member of Team Cruz. He was eliminated from competition early on in the tournament by eventual winner Michael Chiesa. Larsen still was able to make his UFC debut at The Ultimate Fighter 15 Finale in June 2012. Larsen suffered a first-round knockout to Joe Proctor, being finished in just under two minutes. Larsen has been out of action since that fight, and will be returning with an 11-month plus layoff. Larsen is just 2-2 over his last four fights, and in his 12-fight career, he has never won more than three fights in a row. Larsen needs to get back on the winning track against Martins, who gets a full training camp after making his UFC debut on short notice against an always-tough Edson Barboza. Larsen has not finished an opponent in over three years heading into the fight on Saturday.
Chances of being cut with loss: 95%. He is likely done with the UFC for the time being should he lose to Martins in the opening bout on Saturday. The same could be said for Martins, but Martins is the favorite heading into the fight with just one loss in his career. Martins is a talented prospect for the UFC while Larsen will probably always be in the lowest tier of the lightweight roster. He needs a win to remain with the UFC.
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In addition to the already announced Matt Brown vs. Thiago Alves matchup, the UFC has just announced the second fight for their first event on Fox Sports 1. Recent losers Joe Lauzon and Michael Johnson meet in a lightweight scrap to see who stays afloat in the lightweight division (and possibly the UFC).

The Matchup:  Joe Lauzon vs. Michael Johnson

Joe “J-Lau” Lauzon (22-8 overall, 9-5 in the UFC)

Strengths: Ground game

Weaknesses: Striking, can’t beat the elite

Michael “The Menace” Johnson (12-8 overall, 4-4 in the UFC)

Strengths: Powerful striking

Weaknesses: Ground game, ground game, ground game

The Date: August 17, 2013 at UFC on FS1

Weight Class: Lightweight

What led to it: Both guys lost their last fights and both guys need a win in a big way.

Why it matters:  Since losing a competitive match to Jonathan Brookins at the TUF 12 Finale three years ago, Johnson has shown a whole lot of potential, but hasn’t lived up to it by a longshot. The biggest knock on him is his inability to defend the takedown and get back to his feet against guys with solid ground games. 6 of his 8 losses are by submission, the other 2 by decision. Do the math. He’s not getting beaten on the feet, that’s for sure, but guys know the formula to beat Johnson. Take him down to the ground, pound him and set up a submission.

In that regard, Lauzon is a nightmare matchup for Johnson. Lauzon has been susceptible to KO finishes, as recently demonstrated by Anthony Pettis, but one thing J-Lau knows how to do is win by submission. This matchup is eerily similar to Lauzon vs. Guillard. Johnson trains at Blackzilians like Guillard used to, and just like Guillard, Johnson is a devastating striker that can’t compete with guys on the ground. That doesn’t bode well for Johnson, considering Lauzon sunk in rear naked on Guillard.

Johnson is now 4-4 in the UFC and is in all likelihood fighting for his job here. He loses to guys he should probably beat and he’s got a huge hole in his game that’s not likely to improve by leaps and bounds come August 17. He has to win impressively or he could be looking at fighting for another promotion. Lauzon may be in a similar situation and he’s shown his ceiling in the UFC at this point, losing when he faces a step up in competition (Miller and Pettis). However, Johnson is already on a two-fight losing streak while Lauzon is looking to avoid his second loss in a row. One trick ponies won’t be competing for titles any time soon, but they can actually make a living in the UFC…until they start losing.  Johnson desperately needs to show he isn’t one dimensional or it could be curtains.
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War MMA … as presented by Nick Diaz Promotions.

It sounds kind of like a joke at first; someone without a high school diploma like Diaz getting into a complicated business venture like fight promotion seems like a bad ‘April Fool’s Day’ joke. Diaz is a great fighter and a bit temperamental, of course, but the fact that he’s seemingly bent on becoming another of California’s growing number of MMA promoters is something that could be made for comic fodder fairly easy. But here’s the thing: it’s actually one of those moments that could be very enlightening to Diaz and his rabid fanbase.

MMA promoting is hard business and the volumes who’ve failed at it outnumber the handful that has succeeded. Both of the biggest North American promotions, the UFC and Bellator, struggled for years to turn a profit and the list of fairly successful people who’ve lost volumes of cash on promoting MMA are fodder for the annals of the history of the sport. It’s easy to write about MMA, and what we think are mistakes and what aren’t, but one has to give anyone who’s promoted MMA more than once their due credit: promoting MMA is a tough business and few can last long enough to make real money doing it.

Considering he’s walked away from MMA as a fighter it’s surprising he’d go into promoting because he never seemed to be the type to be front and center without putting his hands on someone violently when he’s done with the buildup. As a promoter he’ll be giving interviews ad nausea, something he hates doing as a fighter, and his ability to sell a fight from the promoter’s point of view will be something that people are going to evaluate almost as fiercely as his fighting skills.

The other thing that’s most interesting about this is that it could represent Diaz’s ability to craft his MMA promotion around what he wants MMA to be as opposed to what he perceives it to be. Having to be the man who dictates behavior and ability, as well as try and dictate the product he’s trying to sell to a certain degree, will be a tremendous test of Diaz. He’s the one always complaining about the power of American wrestling and grinding style top position games, and of the scoring of a fight from Pride rules as opposed to modern UFC rules, and now will be his opportunity to do something about it.
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Carwin and Lesnar were the first wave of this group of monsters who were supposed to take over because they were talented fighters who were just too big for smaller heavyweights like Junior Dos Santos and Cain Velasquez. The heavyweights would be where the big boys were, with the biggest baddest men at the top and everyone else being undersized or moving out of the division. And even after the Lesnar fight was over there was a certain buzz in the air: the heavyweight division was the place where the biggest fighters had to be and size was at a premium.

And then in the next 12 months that myth was shattered. And since then those shards have been doused in gasoline and lit on fire.

Lesnar would be beaten, soundly, by Velasquez for the heavyweight title by the end of the year. Carwin would join him, as JDS would put a three round thrashing on Carwin that wound up being Carwin’s swan song from MMA as injuries took away the final stretches of his career. He was last seen in an MMA context coaching the worst rated season of “The Ultimate Fighter” opposite Roy Nelson, neither fan favorites who won the hearts and minds of viewers during what has been labeled the worst season of TUF history. And another injury, this time his knee, would take him out of the Nelson fight and it felt appropriate in a way. Carwin’s injury problems, and multiple neck and back surgeries, wound up taking away the final vestiges of his athletic prowess to the point where he would hang up his gloves.

Carwin, who had a career as an engineer to fall back on, walked away with a grace few athletes get despite our lasting image being of Junior Dos Santos nearly exhausting himself punching Carwin in the face for 15 minutes. His body had finally betrayed him and at age 38 it wasn’t going to miraculously heal up, either. So he walked away, back to being an engineer, and you can’t argue that he should’ve stayed on. With the sheer volume of major injuries happening on such a consistent basis, and seemingly no respite from the injury bug looming, Carwin walking away makes sense.

It’s better to burn out then fade away, especially in MMA.

Carwin’s final legacy will be a positive one, of course, as he held UFC gold and only lost to two of the greatest heavyweights of his era. The spectacular knockouts will stay on highlight reels and people will fondly recall Carwin’s brief run in MMA. But he represents an era of UFC heavyweights where for a brief moment in time the size of the man was seemingly as important as his skill.
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The UFC will join a growing list of sports associated and content accumulated by BT Sport, as the not-yet launched channel has already secured the rights to air Barclays Premier League football, the FA Cup, Aviva Premiership Rugby union and the WTA tour.

Garry Cook, Executive Vice President and Managing Director of UFC EMEA, who has been instrumental in brokering the deal, said that “this agreement is a landmark step in UFC’s development in the UK as it will increase our exposure to a much wider and more mainstream sporting audience.”

While this is hugely positive news for UK and Irish MMA fans, an unavoidable reaction towards the announcement of this deal has been one of disappointment and a sense of feeling underwhelmed. However, I stress that this feeling is not shared enough to be considered the opinion of the majority, yet not too minimal so that it could be easily brushed off as just the Brits indulging in one of their favourite pastimes, complaining.

The main source of agitation and anxiety appears to stem not from the increased exposure of MMA in the UK and potential for more events of course, but from the accessibility of the BT Sport channel. In the UK the broadcasting of sports is largely dominated by Sky Sports who hold the lion share of the Barclays Premier League football television rights, Formula 1, Tennis, NFL and really most other mainstream sports you could think of. As a result, most TV subscribers who have an interest in sport tend to side with Sky, funds permitting. Previously the UFC, along with other sports, was shown on the ESPN channel in the UK, which will now be placed under the BT Sport umbrella, at a pay-per-month subscription cost. When it became known that the UFC’s contract with ESPN in the UK was coming to an end this August, many UK and Irish MMA fans had hoped that a deal could be struck with Sky Sports, so as to avoid further payment in order to view their favourite Octagon stars. The fact that this is now not going to be the case, and that they will have to pay out supplementary subscription costs if they do not already have BT Vision (BT Sport’s TV provider), has left many a Brit and Irishman disgruntled.

The current lack of information provided by BT Sport in regards to how viewers can access its content via Virgin Media, the UK’s 2^nd most popular subscription TV provider, has also caused concern for some. In its current state, Virgin Media, unlike Sky and BT Vision, provides ESPN as a free channel for its existing customers and BT Sport has yet to confirm whether or not their channel will be available on Virgin Media, with their current company line: “We will offer BT Sport on Virgin Media if it makes commercial sense to do so.” This, I believe, will not be too much of an issue going forward and can quite easily see BT Sport appearing on the Virgin Media channel list, much like ESPN does. However, if BT Sport is made available to Virgin Media customers, but at a cost, then UK and Irish based MMA fans have a right to feel aggrieved. But of course, at this stage people need to remember that the deal was only announced this morning, and that further details will be made available shortly in order to further clarify the viewing options and full intricacies of the UFC’s partnership with BT Sport as a whole.

Personally, I understand the frustrations of those shared above, however I am firmly in the majority that have welcomed this announcement and the potential benefits a deal of this nature could have on the development of UK MMA.

One of the most appealing facets of the deal for me was that BT Sport will not only air every UFC event live on its channel, but it has also been confirmed that BT Sport is committed to producing original MMA/UFC programming specifically designed for UK and Irish MMA fans. This will be the first time that this has occurred as part of a UK UFC television deal and will go a long way in satisfying viewers who are starved of MMA content by the mainstream British media. Creating original MMA programming rather than just re-packaging the material provided to the US audience can be seen as a real progressive step for coverage of MMA in the UK. This will act as breath of fresh air for those UK and Irish fans who would watch a live event then have to scour the internet for additional content and analysis from across the pond to further sate their MMA appetite.

Prior to announcing the partnership with BT Sport, UFC President Dana White mentioned that with the appropriate UK broadcaster, UK MMA fans could be looking forward “dates in London, Manchester, Dublin and several other places in the UK, (we would) do them every year, the same date every year, and with the right television deal we bring big fights over here.” This, if it came to fruition, is huge for UK MMA. For the last few years, the UK and Irish MMA fans have felt neglected and short-changed when it came to the frequency of events hosted on these isles and the quality of the cards when they were announced. If this partnership with BT Sport enables the UFC to host more events in the UK than in recent years and increase the class of combatants on show from top to bottom, then another MMA boom in Britain could quite easily transpire, only this time with a fully committed television partner in place to fully exploit any potential successes of the sport.
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So far we know a handful of things … and we think we know more.

1. Eddie Alvarez is still willing to fight for Bellator … but almost begrudgingly

You can tell in his interviews that Eddie just wants to fight, period, for the big paydays he thought were coming to him with the Zuffa deal. He was apparently going to be on the undercards of both the GSP/Condit fight and the Sonnen/Jones fight, of which he’d get a healthy PPV cut. Understandably he’s upset because this is the time to make life-changing money in his career and he’s paying lawyers and selling investment properties to keep food on the table instead of earning his living in the cage.

2. Viacom and Bellator are curiously silent

So far we’re only hearing Eddie’s side of the story. The big news of the day, of Bellator releasing the cast list for “Fight Master,” has been obscured with Alvarez’s ranting with Ariel Helwani. The fact that they haven’t said anything, from either a terse “We will wait for our day in court” type of statement to a “back at you, buddy” type of banter from Bjorn Rebney, says something.

We haven’t heard anything from them, especially in regards to the more savory things Eddie Alvarez has alleged they’ve done. We have to withhold judgment on the whole scenario until we hear their side.

3. There isn’t a groundswell of support for Eddie

His contract situation is an interesting one, especially considering the Bellator contract is modeled after the Zuffa version, but there isn’t this massive “Rally for Mark Hunt” level of support for him. Bellator traffic isn’t all that impressive from a web site perspective so it kind of makes sense that there isn’t anything coming from this outside of a segment from the hardcore fan base.

4. The UFC is quiet … and rightfully so

Dana White and company made their offer and are now just having to wait it out. You can’t blame them for being quiet, as well, as the most we’ve heard from them is the occasional answer from Dana in a scrum about the situation. The UFC made a fair offer for Eddie, especially in light of Hector Lombard not living up to expectations, and all they can do is wait right now.
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UFC 163 in Brazil, headlined by Jose Aldo and Anthony Pettis, now has a second fight on the card. In a curious matchup, recent winner Demian Maia will face off against recent loser Josh Koscheck. This goes against the UFC trend of matching up guys who are on the up and up, as well as guys coming off losses. Check out cagepotato for their conspiracy theory on the reasoning behind this announcement.

The Matchup:  Josh Koscheck vs. Demian Maia

Josh Koscheck  (17-7 overall, 15-7 UFC)

Strengths: Rocket right hand, wrestling

Weaknesses: Becoming one-dimensional and predictable

Demian Maia (18-4 overall, 12-4 UFC)

Strengths: Jiu-jitsu and ever improving striking

Weaknesses: Striking (although improving)

The Date:  August 3, 2013 at UFC 163 in Rio De Janeiro, Brazil

Weight Class:  Welterweight

What led to it:  This is a strange match-up to make because of both fighters’ recent performances. Since dropping to welterweight, Demian Maia is on a tear right now, defeating the likes of solid fighters such as Dong Hyun Kim and Rick Story and coming off of a dominating (though somewhat uninteresting) performance against former contender Jon Fitch. Josh Koscheck on the other hand, was last seen getting pummeled by Robbie Lawler in the first round of a fight he was favored to win. Kos lost a close split decision to Johny Hendricks before that. The already-booked Jake Ellenberger and Rory MacDonald fight limited the choices for a more sensible opponent for Maia, but Nick Diaz or Carlos Condit might have made more sense as well. Maia needs one of the top-ranked guys now, but Koscheck isn’t necessarily a bigger name than Fitch, so a lot of heads are being scratched now.

Why it matters:  For Maia, it would be another impressive victory to add to his resume. The list of viable contenders at welterweight isn’t that long and Maia could be sniffing a title shot very soon in the future. But as stated, Kos is coming off of two losses and you’d have to wonder what a victory over him would really accomplish. Maia is already ranked higher than Koscheck on many boards. Regardless of that, Maia could use a big finish or impressive performance against Koscheck, to show that he can hang with the best in the division. His performance against Fitch was very smart and dominating, but it wasn’t the stuff of legends that makes fans call for a big name match-up or title eliminator. Maia beat Fitch like Jon Fitch would beat Fitch, which is a very hard task to do, but it didn’t make anyone’s jaw drop.

For Josh Koscheck, the UFC mainstay with his ever-present smack talking and showmanship, this could very well be a make-or-break fight to stay in the UFC. Surprising as that sounds, former teammate and UFC veteran Jon Fitch was in a very similar situation and Fitch is fighting for the WSOF organization now. Koscheck could use a showstopping KO here in a big way. His loss to Hendricks was very close and GSP famously stated he thought Koscheck actually won that fight. Hendricks is challenging for the title now, so it’s not crazy to say Koscheck is still an elite fighter with the goods to beat anyone on a given night. But any sort of a loss here could mean more roster trimming from the UFC’s perspective and a bad loss would make Kos a recipient of two highlight reel finishes in a row, something that would take a lot of time and effort to overcome. A good win here and Kos would shoot right back up the rankings and earn a date with another top ranked fighter. Who wouldn’t want to see a Nick Diaz vs. Josh Koscheck showdown with all of the build up and drama before the fight? Kos has value as an entertainer, but he has to win and win now.
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The shellacking Chael Sonnen took Saturday night was expected by nearly everyone with half a brain. You really had to do mental gymnastics to think Sonnen had any chance of surviving the first, much less winning the fight, and Jones mauled him like he was expected to. It was a professional victory for Jones, who finished him in emphatic fashion, and it adds one more scalp to his already impressive list of victims. In the last four years the only fighter to reach the scorecards with Jones was Rashad Evans as Jones ran through Chael like it was just another day at the office. Jones moves forward, his next victory setting the standard for light heavyweight champions that follow him.

But for Sonnen this latest loss in a title fight leaves him looking at a number of roads that aren’t all that good.

If he stays in the light heavyweight division he’s in the same spot Ryan Bader was after UFC 126; at the back of the line and needing to get a significant win streak together to get another shot at Jones again. And even then it’d be tough; Sonnen needs to put together a murderer’s row of wins to top the one it took to get both shots at Anderson Silva’s middleweight title. He’s going to have to pull together a win streak (with mostly finishes) of something along the lines of three to four of the following: Ryan Jimmo, Phil Davis, Glover Teixiera, Alexander Gustafsson, Lyoto Machida or Shogun Rua. To get a second title shot against Jones based on what he showed will require an effort I’m not sure he has.

That would be the type of streak that’ll take a couple years and would be a legendary run of wins. Odds are he won’t be able to pull that off but if he did it’d be undeniable for him to get another shot. And it’s not any better if he returns to middleweight.

If he returns to the middleweight division he’s in the same exact position. He’s already gotten two shots at Anderson Silva and a third won’t happen unless he can pull off another murderer’s row at middleweight. He’d have to go through Okami, Bisping and three to four other top middleweights AGAIN to get a third shot at Anderson (if he still holds the title). And even then it wouldn’t be guaranteed, either, as Sonnen can rightfully decline a trilogy fight against someone he’s finished twice. Their business has been settled and a third fight would be nothing but a fun fight, not one of relevance. If he pulled off another winning streak like that he could justify one but it’d be a tough sell.

So what’s left? You could reasonably sell a fight between Sonnen and Wanderlei Silva, who hasn’t been a fan of Sonnen’s for a significant period of time. A fight with someone like Vitor Belfort would be interesting as would be any other number of talented fighters between middleweight and light heavyweight that are on the fringes of becoming a contender. He has a style that isn’t reliant on reflexes, et al, and could last for a significant period of time as a top tier fighter based on his grinding top position game.

The question he needs to answer, though, is will he? We don’t know and one imagines that Sonnen himself probably doesn’t know either. If he continues in the sport it’ll be a long time before the “bad guy” is put into another title match.
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