Lofty company to be sure but the expectations are certainly high for this Saturday’s Showtime televised bout between IBF junior welterweight titlist Lamont Peterson (31-1-1) and interim WBC junior welterweight titlist Lucas Matthysse (33-2). The fight will originate from Boardwalk Hall in Atlantic City, New Jersey (“The House that Thunder Built”) which was the site of the second and epic third fights between Arturo Gatti and Mickey Ward. For reasons that boggle the mind (according to Dan Rafael of ESPN, its because Matthysse wanted to keep his position as mandatory challenger to WBC titlist Danny Garcia even though their shared promoter insists the winnter of Matthysse/Peterson will face Garcia in September), this bout will be contested at 141 pounds meaning neither title will be on the line and it will not be a unification fight. Such frivolity is the only thing you can criticize about this fight.

The fighter’s styles match perfectly. Peterson is a skilled boxer with a great amateur background who uses a pressure fighting style which involves breaking his opponents down with excellent body punching. Peterson does not have very good punching power but he does wear his opponents down and has a number of late stoppages. He has a good defense but his pressure style results in him getting hit and his chin has betrayed him at times. Peterson was dropped once in his first loss, a 2009 title fight against Timothy Bradley, twice in a 2010 majority draw with Victor Ortiz and once again in 2011 title winning effort against Amir Khan. While Ortiz is a good puncher, Khan is more of a speed puncher and Bradley is not a big puncher. Matthysse, on the other hand, is a seek and destroy boxer-puncher. Maybe that should be puncher-boxer because with 31 knock-outs in 33 victories and scoring a knock down in each of his split-decision losses (a 2010 title eliminator against Zab Judah and a 2011 bout with Devon Alexander), he certainly has TNT in his fists. Matthysse’s offense also acts as his defense and he has no problem exchanging punches.

Besides the styles meshing well, both fighters are determined to win this fight because they absolutely need a win. Peterson was involved in a well documented steroid scandal after he tested positive for an elevated testosterone level and admitted to taking testosterone prior to an aborted rematch with Khan. Prior to that bout Peterson was well-liked and the scandal not only was hit against his reputation but caused his career momentum to come to a halt. Instead of a million dollar payday to face Khan in a rematch, Peterson was on the shelf for over a year before getting $37,500 for his successful February 2013 defense against Kendall Holt. Peterson certainly needs a high profile win to get back to where he was before the positive drug test and a win over the well-regarded Mattysse would be that win. Matthysse, on the other hand, also needs a win on a big stage. Both times Matthysse has stepped up to face elite opposition in televised main events, he lost controversial decisions. Although you can argue he won both the Judah and Alexander fights and he should be undefeated, the fact remains is that he did not do enough to get the official victories and move forward to bigger fights. A loss to Peterson could be three strikes and Matthysse is out of big time fights. As if that is not enough motivation, Golden Boy Promotions has announced that the winner of this fight will face WBC titlist Danny Garcia in a big money fight to crown a junior welterweight champion. The winner of this fight could also be considered for a fight with Floyd Mayweather. The money in those fights is certainly motivation for Matthysse, who grew up poor in Argentina, and Peterson, who grew up poor and, at times, homeless, with his brother Anthony in Washington, DC.

If that isn’t enough to show why expectations are so high for this bout, the oddsmakers see this as a very close fight: Bet365 list Matthysse as a 7-4 favorite; SportBet has Matthysse at -220 (Peterson is +180) Boxing experts are divided on who to pick. Isn’t that the best reason for a fight to be a good one – the fighters are evenly matched and the fans do not know who is going to win?

This is an enormously tough fight to pick. It would not be a surprise if either fighter won either by stoppage or decision. Because I have to pick one, I will take the slight underdog, Peterson. He has shown that if he gets dropped, he can come back stronger and win. I think these guys will slug it out, Peterson will hit the floor and come back to wear down Matthysse and take a decision. Additionally, I do not like the late-breaking news that Matthysse only arrived in the U.S. on Thursday because his home in Argentina was burglarized. Peterson is the pick.

Since the main fight of the weekend is so difficult to pick, here are three fights where the odds will not make you rich but the money is easy to get. On the Matthysse-Peterson undercard, IBF welterweight titlist Devon Alexander defends his title against British fighter Lee Purdy (20-3-1), a late replacement for fello Briton, Kell Brook. If you have never heard of Purdy, don’t feel bad, the oddsmakers apparently have not either as they list him as a massive underdog (SportsBet has Alexander at -2300, Bet365 says he is a 10-1 favorite). They have good reason to because Purdy has losses to a fighter with a losing record and another with nine losses and his best win is over 15 loss Cosme Rivera. Alexander has faced a much better level of competition (Bradley, Matthysse, Marcos Maidana) and is a solid defensive fighter. Alexander is the pick in what figures to be a terrible fight. The day before, Moscow, Russia will host two title fights. WBA “regular” heavyweight titlist Alexander Povetikin (25-0) defends his title and risks his future almost $6,000,000 payday against Wladimir Klitschko against Andrzej Wawrzyk (27-0). Povetkin is a massive favorite (9-1 by Bet365 and -1700 by SportBet) and no one knows who Wawrzyk is (his best win is over former U.S. Prospect/Suspect Devin Vargas). Povetkin is the pick. On the same card, Dennis Lebedev (25-1) defends his WBA cruiserweight title against 41 year old former titlist, Guillermo Jones (38-3-2). In the past 5 years, Jones has fought 3 times and he is going to Lebedev’s home country. Lebedev is a favorite (SportBet says -500, Bet365 says 4 to 1) and he has made a career recently beating up old fighters (Roy Jones and James Toney are recent examples). Lebedev is the pick.

Four fight picks isn’t enough for you… okay, one more. No odds are available for the return of “Sugar” Shane Mosley (46-8-1) against Pablo Cesar Cano (26-2-1) airing Saturday night on Fox Deportes from Cancun, Mexico. Mosley has not won a fight since 2009 and was briefly retired. Before the retirement, he looked horrible in fights with Canelo Alvarez, Manny Pacquiao and Sergio Mora. Cano, on the other hand, gave a good account of himself against Paulie Malignaggi last October. That said, he took some good shots from Paulie, who can’t punch, and was stopped by a much smaller Erik Morales. Mosley has enough of a chin to slug it out with and beat Cano. Amazingly, Mosley is the pick.

Author’s Record for the Year: 26-6-2 (During the big Mayweather fight weekend, I went 6-7 for the second week in a row but, get this, my only loss was picking Gabe Rosado over J’Leon Love, a close fight most, except two of the official judges, had Rosado winning and now Love has tested positive for a banned substance. No you don’t get your money back and I can’t change a loss to a win – although Love loses the win, Rosado loses the loss and both fighters gain a no decision).

“I am working on the fight… I’m crunching the numbers. You should see my calculator — it’s red-hot. I am working on a lot of fights, but this is my No. 1 priority…” Schaefer told Rafael.  ”This is something I am pursuing, and I am having conversations with both sides… Canelo wants the fight, and Floyd has never turned down an opponent.”

Additionally, Stephen Espinoza, the head of Showtime Sports (the network that has five fights left on an exclusive deal with Mayweather and which has televised Canelo’s last two bouts), told Rafael this week that he was “cautiously optimistic” that the fight would be finalized.

There is a long way to go from a promoter “crunching the numbers” on his calculator to actually having a mega pay per view fight occur. Indeed, while boxing fans seem excited about a possible Mayweather-Alvarez match-up, there is an equal amount of doubt that the fight happens in September. Journalists such as Rafael and Steve Kim of Maxboxing have expressed doubt that the fight happens in September.

Intertwined with the question of whether the Mayweather-Alvarez fight happens in September is another question: is the fight as big as everyone thinks it is? Espinoza is on the record that he believes the fight is not only the biggest that can currently be made but “Breaking the pay-per-view record of Oscar De La Hoya and Mayweather would be our goal in that fight.” The May 2007 bout between De La Hoya and Mayweather was the last boxing event to substantially crack the mainstream: in the week leading up to the fight, the fighters were on the covers of both Sports Illustrated and ESPN the Magazine and appeared on various television talk shows; the debut edition of HBO’s reality series “24/7” which featured the fighters was a highly buzzed about show; the live gate was over $19,000,000 (approximately $10 million more than Mayweather’s recent bout with Robert Guerrero); the total gross revenue was reported to be $165,000,000; the fight broke the all-time record for pay per view sales with 2.5 million buys; and the fighter’s paydays were absurd, Mayweather got $25,000,000 and De La Hoya made $58,000,000. Suffice it to say, it will be an enormous challenge for Mayweather-Canelo to reach that class.

One of the top reasons for the success of De La Hoya-Mayweather was that De La Hoya was a no doubt cross-over superstar. He had been fighting on HBO since 1993 and had numerous successful pay per views including his 1999 fight with Felix Trinidad which sold 1.4 million pay per view buys. De La Hoya also regularly appeared on network television talk shows, had a Latin Grammy winning music album and was widely covered by mainstream newspapers and magazines. While Mayweather may not currently be as popular as De La Hoya was, he has a very large fanbase and a substantial “Q Rating.”

The man known as “Money” has been fighting on HBO since 1997 and has headlined 10 pay per views of varying degrees of success starting in 2005. He regularly appears on network television to give interviews, has an excellent presence on social media and has starred in numerous editions of reality shows to promote his fights. Mayweather’s “extra-curricular” activities also get a lot of media coverage and while you can debate the quality of his character, the old saying goes “there is no such thing as bad press.” Mayweather’s current status is certainly sufficient for him to be the “A Side” of a De La Hoya-Mayweather level event.

But is Canelo at a level where he can be the “B Side” to a 2.5 million buys event? The 22 year old is a popular figure in his native Mexico and is coming off a unification bout with Austin Trout where he drew 39,247 fans to the Alamodome in San Antonio, Texas. However, he does not speak English (or at least does not give interviews in English), has only been fighting on US television for less than three years (including two Showtime main events, three HBO main events, one HBO Latino main event and three pay per view undercard bouts) and is not known in the US mainstream (although he recently began appearing in Under Armour advertisements). Canelo has never been in the main event of a pay per view. He also does not seem to have an outgoing personality that will attract non-hardcore boxing fans to buy a pay per view. This is in direct contrast to when Mayweather was the “B Side” in his fight with De La Hoya where he had been fighting on television for ages, had already been involved in successful pay per views and used his outgoing personality to drive a reality television show and promote the fight.

Mayweather’s recent bout with Guerrero, which boxing insiders have speculated sold anywhere from 850,000 pay per view buys to 1,000,000 buys, proved that a significant “B Side” is needed to get to 1.25 million or 1.5 million buys, let alone 2.5 million buys. Indeed, Espinoza admitted this week that last week’s pay per view did not reach the numbers that prior Mayweather pay per views did because Guerrero “is not particularly well known.” It is not known if Canelo is that significant “B Side” and the evidence discussed above suggests that he may not currently be. If that is the case, then a September Mayweather-Canelo fight will not be as big as everyone thinks it will be.

Stated otherwise, a September Mayweather-Canelo fight may not be as big as it needs to be. Getting back to the original question of if the fight will happen in September, money will ultimately decide that question. According to the exclusive six fight contract Mayweather signed with Showtime, the network guarantees Mayweather a minimum payment of $32,000,000 per fight. That is a huge amount of money. According to Rafael and Kevin Iole of Yahoo Sports, Mayweather’s guarantee (as well as other costs such as the over 50% of the gross sales which goes to the cable companies, advertising costs and purses for Mayweather’s opponent and undercard fighters) essentially means that a Mayweather pay per view must sell 1.1 to 1.2 million buys in order to break even. Espinoza disputes that claim but it is clear that Mayweather’s enormous guarantee means that pay per view sales must be enormous in order for the network to make a profit. Thus, Showtime has a strong incentive to make the biggest fight possible for September and it believes Mayweather-Canelo is that fight.

It would appear that Showtime’s incentive would be shared by Golden Boy Promotions. Because Golden Boy has been banned by HBO, all of its premium network fights are aired by Showtime. Thus, it should want to make its major television partner happy. Additionally, Canelo is the biggest star Golden Boy has under contract (Mayweather and Miguel Cotto work with them without a contract, you can question Bernard Hopkins’ actual star power and Adrien Broner is not yet a big draw) and he has said multiple times that he wants Mayweather next. If their star fighter wants the fight, they need to do what they can to make it happen. Of course, the big money to be made on a major pay per view event is also a huge incentive.

Canelo, however, may not have as strong an incentive. It is well known that Mayweather does not like the idea of his opponents getting anywhere near the pay he receives for the fights. One of the many reasons a fight with Manny Pacquiao never materialized is because Mayweather would never agree to a 50-50 split of profits nor would he agree to any arrangement where Pacquiao received a percentage as opposed to a flat fee. Mayweather’s recent opponents all accepted purses in the $2 to $3 million range (except for Cotto, a known draw, whose guarantee was $8 million) while he had guarantees of $25 million to $32 million. Canelo, a superstar in Mexico and someone who is establishing drawing power in the US, is not going to accept a $3 million guarantee. He could probably get that money fighting a lesser opponent as last year he received $2 million for his 5 round destruction of Josesito Lopez. Rather, for a Mayweather bout, Canelo now has the clout to demand a substantial guarantee and a percentage of the profits. That should infuriate Mayweather and could lead us to another Mayweather-Pacquiao situation. Further, Canelo’s monetary demands could lead to additional costs to Showtime which makes the pay per view an even riskier proposition for them.

Meanwhile, Mayweather has very little incentive to agree to face Canelo. His $32 million is guaranteed by his contract with Showtime. It has been reported that the contract also outlines approved opponents. While Canelo is one of those opponents, the list purportedly also includes Devon Alexander, Marcos Maidana and Danny Garcia. Those fighters are all smaller than Canelo and for various reasons, most likely present less risk of a loss to Mayweather. Those fighters also are not well known nor are they significant box office draws. Thus, those fighters are at a significant financial negotiating disadvantage vis a vis Canelo and are more likely to accept a $3 million purse. By fighting one of those fighters instead of Canelo, Floyd could have his cake and eat it too… an easier fight big money. It may even be the same money as a Canelo fight because Mayweather would command a bigger piece of a smaller pie. Showtime would have concern about selling such a fight but their contract with Mayweather gives them no leverage in this situation.

While money is the biggest factor in making a Mayweather-Canelo fight for September, there are other issues as well. Mayweather is the welterweight champion and while he has had two fights at 154 pounds, boxing insiders believe that Mayweather is not comfortable moving up to junior middleweight. Canelo simply cannot move down to welterweight. Two years ago Canelo could not make a 150 pound catchweight for a bout with Matthew Hatton and, at 22 years old, could still be growing which means a move to middleweight could be in the near future. The weight could be an issue that prevents the bout. A second issue is the effect a Canelo fight would have on Mayweather’s legacy. Some fans are saying Mayweather needs to fight Canelo to improve his standing in boxing history because Canelo is the biggest challenge he could face now. There is some truth to that although you could say Canelo is a 22 year old with no amateur background who has one win against a world class opponent in his weight class (Trout). The opposition argument is that a Canelo fight really does no more for his legacy than an Alexander, Maidana or Garcia bout would do. Rather, fights with Pacquiao or middleweight champion Sergio Martinez, both of which cannot be made, would do more for his legacy. If the man known as “Money” were to take these non-monetary issues into consideration, they could also prevent the fight from happening.

It says here that Mayweather-Canelo does not happen in September. Mayweather has no incentive to do so and Showtime has no leverage to make it happen. Canelo, while he would not make as big a payday, can still make career high money with another fight, potentially against Cotto. While Mayweather is adamant about fighting September 14, 2013, he also complained of a sore hand after the Guerrero fight and has not had such a quick return to the ring since 2001. My guess is that Canelo faces Cotto on September 14, 2013, either at the MGM Grand in Las Vegas or at the Barclays Center in Brooklyn, New York and that Mayweather faces the winner of the Garcia-Lamont Peterson-Lucas Matthyse mini-tournament (the winner of this weekend’s Peterson-Matthyse fight is penciled in to face Garcia on September 7, 2013) at the MGM Grand in December.
http://insidefights.com/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2010/05/floyd-mayweather-jr-120×120.jpg
http://insidefights.com/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2010/05/floyd-mayweather-jr.jpg

The 1981 welterweight unification match between superstars “Sugar” Ray Leonard and Thomas Hearns and the 1982 heavyweight championship bout between Larry Holmes and Gerry Cooney were two of the more famous fights that Vegas received instead of MSG during its early years, before the rise of Vegas as the new fight capital of the world. In the following years, different venues and cities would attempt to challenge Las Vegas’s status: Atlantic City and more recently Cowboys Stadium in Dallas, TX, would rise as contenders. While such challenges would result in those venues hosting some large events, of course, Vegas’s status as the leader in hosting boxing has remained unchanged.

Manny Pacquiao, one of the two biggest stars in boxing, has agreed to have his next fight against Brandon Rios venued at the Cotai Arena at the Venetian Casino in Macau, China. Not the Venetian in Las Vegas. Not the MGM Grand, which has hosted Pacquiao’s last four and seven out of his last nine fights and the last seven Floyd Mayweather fights. Not the Mandalay Bay where Pacquiao stays in Las Vegas (because he feels comfortable there even though he fights at other venues), has Church services in their event space and has performed in concert. Not even Cowboys Stadium (where Pacquiao fought twice in 2010) or Madison Square Garden (where Pacquiao has never fought despite New York having a sizeable Filipino population and being the media capital of the world).

Macau. China.

If you fly twenty hours from the United States to attend the fight (or watch the PPV on the night of November 23 while it is the morning of November 24 where the fight is occurring wondering why the crowd looks so tired), you may wonder how did we get to this point. There are actually quite a few answers.

Casino Money

As mentioned earlier, Las Vegas was able to become the fight capital of the world because of its casino money. However, the thrill of games of chance is not the only way a casino gets gamblers in the door. Indeed, casinos need something to distinguish themselves from each other or even a home poker game. Thus, casinos host top restaurants, superstar comedians and musicians, extravagant shopping and decadent nightlife. In addition to those amenities casinos regularly host boxing events. The idea is simple: big gamblers would enjoy an evening at a four star restaurant, watch a world class prize fight and cap off the night surrounded by beautiful people and energetic music in a club. Before, in between and during all of those activities, the gambler is betting large sums in the casino. If hundreds or even thousands of gamblers are doing that, then the casino is potentially making huge sums of money. Thus, the casino can pay the promoters and fighters more money to have the fights in their casino than Madison Square Garden, L.A’s Staples Center or even the 100,000 plus seat Cowboys Stadium.

Fighters and promoters go where the money is.

Pacquiao, in particular, has always been a good draw for Las Vegas. Of course, his action style, amazing speed, fantastic power which led to more than a few crushing knock outs and fascinating back story all contributed to his drawing power. However, his ethnicity as a Filipino also helped his ability to fill seats in “Sin City.” When Pacquiao would fight in Las Vegas, many Filipinos and many Asians would make the long journey to the desert to watch their hero while also staying in the hotels, shopping, eating, drinking, being entertained and, most importantly, gambling. Indeed, when Pacquiao returned to fighting in Las Vegas in 2011, promoter Bob Arum mentioned that the influx of money from Asian gamblers was a prominent reason for the MGM Grand seeking Pacquiao’s return.

Those gamblers, however, have not been traveling to Las Vegas as frequently with the rise of extravagant luxury casinos in Macau, China. Macau, like Hong Kong, is a “Special Administrative Region” of China that, while dependent on China for military protection and foreign affairs, has its own economic and legal systems. In other words it is not really a communist city. Beginning in 1999, when Portugal officially turned over control of the city to China, casinos began being built and that process was accelerated by liberalization of the laws relating to the gaming industry in 2001. That led to Las Vegas based casinos such as the Sands (2004), the Wynn (2006) and the Venetian (2007) opening Macau locations. In fact, the Venetian Macau is the sixth largest building in the world by floor space (at the time it opened, it was second). Numerous other casinos have followed. With the gamblers of Asia staying close to home but still enjoying games of chance, these casinos have prospered to the tune of huge profits. Kevin Iole of Yahoo reported that during the weekend of the Zou Shiming fight at the Venetian Macau in April, 2013, the casino’s profits were up 70%. Further, Arum stated that the profits for those two days were more than the profits of some Las Vegas casinos for a whole year.

With all that money, Macau casinos can certainly afford mega-events, including those involving a Pacquiao whose minimum guarantee for fights is reported to be in the neighborhood of $25,000,000. So the casinos in Macau have the money and the incentive to bring the fights to their properties. But do the promoters and the fighters have the same incentive?

A New Market

While the population of Macau is only 568,000, both the 2010 Chinese census and a 2012 estimate calculate China’s current population to be over 1,350,000,000.  By these numbers, China’s population is at least 1,034,000,000 larger than that of the United States and is approximately three times larger than the combined populations of the United States, Mexico and Canada. China is also the world’s fastest growing major economy.

Pacquiao’s promoter, Top Rank, run by Arum and Todd DeBouef, has been extremely successful in promoting boxing events throughout North America.  Boxing is increasingly becoming a sport where only the major fights receive mainstream attention.  Outside of a Pacquiao or Mayweather fight, the sport largely goes unnoticed by non-hardcore boxing sports fans.  While Top Rank does good business on other fights, it does not reap the massive windfall that a Pacquiao event does.  Additionally, Top Rank has faced increased competition over the past 10 years from Golden Boy Promotions.  This competition ranges from everything from signing free agent talent, signing away fighters from the other company (Golden Boy works with Mayweather, whom Top Rank developed into a star; signed Victor Ortiz while he was under a Top Rank contract; and tried to poach Pacquiao and Nonito Donaire), scheduling particular venues, alliances with television networks (both in the US and Mexico), particular dates from the pay per view industry to sponsorships by Mexican beer companies (notably, Top Rank is sponsored by Tecate while Golden Boy is sponsored by Corona).  While Top Rank is no stranger to competition, as Don King and Main Events would certainly attest to, the competition which occurred decades ago was for a much bigger boxing industry.  As today’s boxing industry is smaller than it once was, having another giant promotional company like Golden Boy must be cutting into Top Rank’s business in some fashion.  Indeed, their battles over premium network dates has led to Golden Boy being the (mostly) exclusive provider of boxing content for Showtime and Top Rank being barred from that network leaving them to only do business with HBO.

With the competitive landscape in North America, Arum has turned some of his attention to China.  Although Top Rank staged their first event in Macau only this April, Arum has been talking about promoting events there for a number of years.  He talked about it so much and even mentioned bringing Pacquiao and Donaire there that boxing journalists began making jokes about Arum being “the boy who cried Macau.”  Joke no longer.  Top Rank is serious about Macau.  For the April card, it agreed to allow HBO2 to air it for a minimal licensing fee just because the Venetian wanted the HBO brand attached to the show.  The April card and the Pacquiao-Rios fight are not the only events Top Rank has planned; a July card featuring Shiming is also scheduled.

The most important piece in the development of the Top Rank-Venetian Macao relationship was Top Rank’s signing of Shiming. As an amateur fighter, Shiming represented China in three Olympic games and won a bronze medal and then two gold medals. The first gold medal was won when the Olympic games were held in Beijing. During the course of his wildly successful amateur career, Shiming became a national hero. Sure, Pacquiao is a national hero in the Philipines, a country with a population of just under 100,000,000. Shiming is a similar hero but for a country 15 times the size! Thus, it cannot said to be surprising that the April show featuring Shiming was a success at the box office and the casino. The television numbers, though, even considering the huge population of China, are extrodinary: it has been reported that 300 million viewers in China watched the bout. 300 million viewers for a four round professional debut! No fight, or any sporting event for that matter, in the North America even comes close to those kind of numbers.

Keep in mind when thinking about those numbers… there is no competition. Golden Boy has no presence in China and has no Chinese boxers under contract. The same goes for Don King (although he has promoted cards there in the past, his entire organization is rapidly declining), Main Events, Dan Goosen, Gary Shaw or non-US promoters such as Frank Warren, Matchroom Sport, K2 Promotions, Sauerland Event and Teiken Promotions. As such, Top Rank has access to a billion and a half people. Now, they plan on using Pacquiao, in addition to Shiming, to break that market.

Taxes

That explains why the promoter is interested in China… but why would Pacquiao be interested? For years, he has received huge paydays in the United States. Why would he look to change that? Taxes.

The United States federal government charges income taxes for those who make Pacquiao money of about 40%. Thus, if Pacquiao receives just his guarantee, assume $25,000,000, he really only makes $15,000,000 and pays $10,000,000 to the United States government (and you wondered why Pacquiao met with President Barack Obama when he visited the White House in 2011). Also, keep in mind that Nevada, like Texas (where Pacquiao has also fought) and Florida, has no state income tax. So, if you are wondering why Pacquiao has never fought in New York it is because in addition to the 40% charged by the federal government, he would also be subject to New York State Income Tax.

Fighting in Macau, on the other hand, Pacquiao would not be subject to that tax rate. Rather, Macau’s income tax rate is just 12%. That also assumes that the Macau government does not cut a deal with Pacquiao to lessen the tax burden. Such a negotiation, given the publicity a Pacquiao fight will bring to Macau and the potential economic benefits that may follow, is quite possible. Thus, on a $25,000,000 guarantee, Pacquiao would take home $22,000,000 or $7,000,000 more than he would take home for a fight in the United States. Even if Pacquiao’s guarantee was only $19,000,000, the Macau tax rate would allow him to take home $16,720,000, almost two million more than a $25,000,000 guarantee in the US would allow him to bring home.

The math is quite simple.

Politics

At this point, you may be thinking that with type of numbers being discussed, Pacquiao must be so rich that he would not care about the 40% tax rate. Such a thought could not be more wrong.

According to biographer Gary Andrew Poole, that Pacquiao spent “millions” on a losing effort in 2007. Interestingly, Poole claims that in Filipino elections, money from campaigns needs to go to ward leaders to protect the candidates interests and insinuates that money is needed for purposes that the United States would deem to be less than legal. Following the loss, Pacquiao became more organized in his approach to running for political office and even went as far as forming his own political party, the People’s Champ Movement. Poole noted that Pacquiao spent “probably more than $7,000,000 of his own money” on his first winning campaign in 2010 for Congress in the Philipines.

As part of his political party, Pacquiao’s wife now runs for office. Jinkee Pacquiao is currently running for Vice-Governor of their home province, Sarangani. This is in combination with Jinkee’s reputation which is described by Poole as having “more unorthodox spending and saving habits.” His younger brother, Rogelio, is also running for Congress. Like his own campaigns, the campaigns of Jinkee and Rogelio are funded by Pacquiao.

Perhaps because of his political ambitions, because he is a charitable fellow or because he is, as Poole claims, “an easy mark… to anyone with a sob story,” Pacquiao often gives enormous sums of money away. Poole actually wrote that “[w]hen anyone wants cash, Pacquiao immediately agrees.” The anyone refers to the many individuals Pacquiao employs for whatever reason (stories abound about contests where winners get paid in addition to salaries), the 150-200 people who claim to be his relatives, washed up and broke ex-fighters and ex-athletes and generally anyone else. He pays for funerals of random Filipinos, donates hospital beds, gives money to friends for medical bills and hands out school supplies to children. It even goes so far that people often just show up at Pacquiao’s house and, amazingly, he gives them money!

So combine all of that with Pacquiao’s former gambling and partying days and current devotion to religion, you have a recipie as old as boxing. A recipie for a broke boxer. Pacquiao needs money and Macau can provide it.

The Media

Because the fight is in China and Pacquiao will be training for the bout in his native Philipines, the US media will not have access to Pacquiao or his training staff which includes Hall of Famer Freddie Roach. Arum has arranged for Pacquiao to participate in a press tour as well as spending one week at the Wild Card Gym in Hollywood, California so the press can have access to Pacquiao. However, this is much less access to the fighter than the media is used to. It is also unknown how HBO, which is the distributor of the pay per view, will promote the event. Normally, it would film the fighters for a multi-episode arc of its “24/7” series. In the past, they have filmed Pacquiao in the Philipines. This time, though, it appears that may not happen.

The issue with Pacquiao not being in the United States creates a potential “out of sight, out of mind” problem. If he is fighting overseas exclusively in the future, as his advisor Michael Koncz has suggested is possible, and is not featured in reality shows, will US fans forget him? Would an awesome knock out victory that occurred in China against an opponent who is not that well known (Rios has only been in two HBO co-featured bouts, two pay per view undercards, two Showtime main events, one HBO main event and as the main event of a very small pay per view card) be dismissed because it was not well reported on? That is certainly an issue that bears watching.

Pay Per View

Without media access to the superstar fighter, the media will likely write less about the fight which will result in less publicity. The effect of this could be a dramatic reduction in pay per view buys. An example of this was the recent Mayweather-Robert Guerrero pay per view which is rumored to have done less buys than past Mayweather events. Many reasons are cited for this reduction but many experts point to the lack of media availability by the fighters as one of the reasons.

Thus, Pacquiao’s lack of a presence might cost him pay per view buys. According to numerous reports, Pacquiao receives a certain amount of money per pay per view buy in addition to his guarantee. Obviously, not fighting in the United States may cost him money that way.

Is that cost outweighed by other gains, such as the tax issue discussed above? Another gain could be through Chinese Pay Per View. Arum has told multiple writers that the event will be sold for $4-$6 in China and will be available on smart phones, I-Pads, computers and other technologies. This is an interesting development because the use of such devices for pay per view in the United States has not really taken off. Regardless, Arum has said that the people of China are very tech-savy and may watch the fight this way. If that is the case, then $4 a pop for even half of the amount of people that watched Shiming’s debut and, well, that math is pretty simple too. That could make up for the loss in revenue from US pay per view.

The only way we will know whether the move to Macau is successful is if Pacquiao’s next bout is also held there. Of course there are other factors such as whether Pacquiao wins and if major opponents are willing to go to Asia for the fight (it appears that Pacquiao’s great rival Juan Manuel Marquez is not willing to do so). But money talks. For this fight, at least, it has talked Pacquiao into going to Macau. It may entice him to stay there too.
http://insidefights.com/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2011/10/manny-pacquiao-120×120.jpg
http://insidefights.com/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2010/05/manny_pacquiao.jpg

10. Floyd Mayweather is in an entirely different class

When all is said and done Floyd Mayweather is going to be considered the better fighter than Manny Pacquiao for a good reason: he just looks so much better than the field. His competition may have been questioned at times but the one thing Floyd does is look so much better than anyone else.

9. Robert Guerrero is a tough dude

Guerrero was out-classed but he never broke. He fought very tough, even in a one sided fight, but he never gave up and tried not to lose.

8. Canelo Alvarez is going to take a beating if he fights Floyd next

It was floated by Jim Grey afterwards but if Canelo gets next Floyd will clown him even worse than Guerrero did. Alvarez looked solid but not elite in his last fight against Austin Trout but it’s purely a money grab by Floyd if Canelo’s next; he’s not ready someone like Floyd.

7. The undercard rivaled anything MMA this year

The main event may have been fairly “meh” but the undercard was incredibly good. Lots of great fights and the main PPV card delivered significantly. The main may have been one sided but you got your money’s worth as a whole.

6. Floyd’s next fight will be an interesting pick

We all want Pacquiao but I don’t see that happening. Whoever Floyd picks will be an interesting matchup because of the reason behind it. Marquez looked like a world beater after knocking Manny out but I’m not sure Floyd would take the fight without Olympic style drug testing (which would probably be something Marquez’s camp would decline). Alvarez is the safe pick, and fight, and Timothy Bradley is still out there (and cheap, too).

5. Showtime’s PPV presentation is the best out there.

The one thing boxing still has over MMA, by a clear margin to, is that they’ve had plenty of years to hone and refine the presentation. MMA is still in its infancy, production wise, and boxing has figured it out and does it so much better. It’s cleaner in a lot of ways and has a bit more of a flow to it than a lot of UFC PPVs do.

4. Mauro Ranallo might be the most versatile announcer in combat sports

He may not be the most versed in boxing but I’ll give him credit; he’s very good at being able to defer to those who do. Mauro quarterbacks the broadcast and sets up a lot of great points for everyone to talk about. He keeps it flowing and able to keep everything moving smoothly. Good announcing is something that rarely gets noticed and I have to commend everyone tonight; it was spot on and a big reason was because of the Canadian Combat Sport Connoisseur.

3. I’m not sure Floyd can fight as much as Showtime wants him too

Floyd has five more fights in the next 30 months for Showtime, I believe, and after tonight I’m not sure he’s going to be get them all in. Guerrero may have been a fairly easy win for him but the thing we forget is that Mayweather showed signs of age. He lost more rounds than he would’ve years ago, excluding the 12th for obvious reasons, and it seemed like he was waiting to pull the trigger for a KO that wasn’t going to come. He wants to fight again this year in September but he also claims to have hurt his right hand, as well.

2. I’m still not convinced the Mares/de Leon stoppage was a good one

I went back and rewatched the end of Mares v. de Leon, the co main, and it still looks like a bad stoppage. de Leon was still defending himself and while he was probably going to get knocked out he should’ve been allowed to fight his way out of it. He was still defending himself and in a world title fight I think you earn the right to go out on your shield, especially in a situation that wasn’t clearly one fighter being unable to defend himself.

1. Floyd Mayweather might have the worst taste in music this side of Dana White

Based on his entourage alone, with Bieber and Lil Wayne, I’m beginning to think Floyd might not have a taste in music up to par with his boxing abilities.
http://insidefights.com/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2010/05/floyd-mayweather-jr.jpg
http://insidefights.com/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2010/05/floyd-mayweather-jr-120×120.jpg

The odds for this fight are fairly consistent. The MGM Grand sportsbook currently has Mayweather as a -750 favorite and Guerrero as a +500 underdog. Bovada (www.bovada.lv) lists Mayweather at -750 and Guerrero at +475. Bet365 (www.bet365.com) has Mayweather at 1-10 and Guerrero at 11-2. Sportbet (www.sportbet.com) has Mayweather listed as a -650 favorite and Guerrero at +475. Basically, Mayweather is a 7 to 1 favorite. Those are large odds for a boxing match. After all, there are only two combatants (both of whom are world class) as opposed to the Kentucky Derby where any of 20 horses can win it.

To that end, I am sure you are thinking Guerrero is a good value bet. You would be right. Certainly, there are people picking “The Ghost” to pull off the upset. Those people would cite Guerrero’s southpaw stance as the main reason for that pick and remind everyone that Mayweather had problems against lefty fighters such as Demarcus Corley and Zab Judah. Another reason in favor of a Guerrero pick is his youth, solid boxing skills and determination. Guerrero himself gives himself a great chance to win because he says Mayweather has diminished with age and gets hit more than he used to do.

While a bet may be a good value, that doesn’t mean that it is a winning bet. Mayweather is the better boxer with a much better defense. With his recent defensive slippage in mind, he mended fences with his father, Floyd Mayweather, Sr., who is a noted defensive trainer. Further, while “Money” is not a big puncher, neither is Guerrero and I would opine that Mayweather’s speed makes him a better puncher. He most certainly has advantages in hand and foot speed. Guerrero, unlike Mayweather’s past 2 opponents (Victor Ortiz and Miguel Cotto) is not a bigger fighter; they are the same height and Mayweather has a two inch reach advantage. Moreover, while Guerrero has some good wins, his level of competition is not close to Mayweather’s.

Guerrero’s other disadvantage would be outside distractions. First, he has never been in a fight of this magnitude. Second, his arrest last month on gun charges in New York must be weighing on his mind. It certainly was enough to cause his team to close their training camp to the media. This is not the way to enter the biggest fight of your career. That said, Mayweather has some distractions as well. This week, the mother of his children, Josie Harris, gave an interview to Yahoo where she made it clear that Mayweather attacked her and disputed his claims that he did not hit her. This issue had been around prior to the Cotto fight but having them re-appear on fight week cannot be a good thing. Harris also claimed that she and Mayweather had since reconciled and even were “intimate” on one occasion. I’m sure that Mayweather’s fiance, Chantel “Ms.” Jackson, has spoken to the fighter about that this week especially since she said in no uncertain time on Showtime’s All Access show that they did not have an open relationship aside.

Regardless, Mayweather has proven over the years that he puts distractions to the side on fight night. He has also proved his ability to win under a variety of in-the-ring circumstances. Mayweather is the pick.

Because this is such a big event, I’ll even entertain some “prop” bets on the fight. Mayweather by decision is 5-9 (MGM), 8-13 (Bet365) or -200 (Bovada) and by KO, TKO or disqualification is even money (MGM), 7-4 (Bet365) or +260 (Bovada). Guerrero is too skilled to walk into a knock out punch and he has a very good chin. Additionally, Mayweather is too careful to take the chances he may need to in order to score a knock out. Mayweather by decision is the pick. Along with that choice, take the over on any of the round bets (over round 3.5 is -3000; over round 5.5 is -1400; over round 7.5 is -750; over round 9.5 is -475; and over round 9.5 is -280 – all according to Bovada; MGM has over 10 at -350). Also, please be advised that the draw bet (30-1 at the MGM; 33-1 at Bet365), as it is in all fights, is a sucker’s bet.

On the undercard, Daniel Ponce de Leon (44-4) defends the WBC featherweight title against former bantamweight and junion featherweight titlist Abner Mares (25-0-1). Mares is a 2-7 (Bet365) or -280 (Sportbet) favorite over Ponce de Leon (a 5-2 or +240 underdog). Ponce de Leon has advantages in size and punching power and that is about it. But everytime he has stepped up to fight an “A” level fighter, he has lost. Mares is the better boxer, has good power, especially to the body, and is an excellent pressure fighter. Mares is the pick. Leo Santa Cruz (23-0-1), at -2000 (Sportbet) or 1-20 (Bet365), is a huge favorite over Alexander Munoz (36-4). He has youth, aggression, good power, technique and Munoz is coming off a two year layoff and a fight against a tomato can. Santa Cruz is the easy pick. If that is too many favorites for you, then look for underdog Gabriel Rosado (21-6) to perform well against J’Leon Love (15-0). Rosado has faced the better opposition and although he may be worn down a little from prior wars, Love is not a big hitter. Additionally, Mayweather Promotions has a habit of putting its fighters, of which Love is one, in tough before they are ready. Rosado, a 6-5 (Bet365) underdog, is the pick.

Speaking of underdogs, heavyweight challenger Francesco Pianeta (28-0-1) is a very, very large underdog (12-1 by Bet365, +1750 by Sportbet, +1400 by Bovada). There is good reason. He is untested when compared to the champion, Wladimir Klitschko (59-3). Klitschko has every advantage in this bout. The only way to make money on his when he is a -3500 favorite is to put a significant amount of money on the bet (known in gambling terms as a “bridge jumper bet” because if you lose, you want to jump off a bridge). I would suggest that is appropriate here… Pianeta has no chance. Klitschko is the pick.

That is 5 fight picks and 2 prop bets. I would have picked a horse to win the Kentucky Derby as well but its been a busy fight week. Best of luck and enjoy the fights!

Author’s Record for the Year: 20-5-2 (I tried for 7 for 7 last week and after sweating out Amir Khan’s survival against Julio Diaz, Sergio Martinez’ close call against Martin Murray and Danny Garcia’s rough late rounds against Zab Judah, Chris Arreola ruined my perfect week by getting dropped, roughed up and losing a decision to Bermane Stiverne).
http://insidefights.com/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2010/05/floyd-mayweather-jr-120×120.jpg
http://insidefights.com/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2010/05/floyd-mayweather-jr.jpg

Obviously, it is a different world tonight. The biggest boxing event on Saturday is the Floyd Mayweather – Robert Guerrero fight from the MGM Grand in Las Vegas, Nevada. But, and this may come as a shock to some of you, Wladimir Klitschko (59-3) will be defending the heavyweight championship of the world on Saturday in Manheim, Germany. I’m sure if you told boxing fans 50 years ago that no one would care about a dominant heavyweight champions 15^th consecutive title defense because their focus was on a welterweight championship match they would laugh in your face.

Even more laughable to those boxing fans of yesteryear: Klitschko’s bout on Saturday was being considered to be a televised lead-in to help promote the Mayweather fight. Dan Rafael of ESPN reported that when HBO was negotiating to air the Mayweather – Guerrero pay per view, it asked Klitschko to agree to face American heavyweight prospect, Bryant Jennings, and it would purchase the fight to air it on HBO in the afternoon as a way to promote the evenings pay per view. Of course, Mayweather signed with Showtime and HBO no longer had interest in Klitschko’s next bout. Just imagine that though: the heavyweight championship fight as a preliminary bout!

Instead, Klitschko will take on the unknown and untested Francesco Pianeta (28-0-1). The Italian is 6’5 so the 6’7 Klitschko will not tower over him like he does most opponents but he will still have advantages in most, if not all, important boxing categories: size, speed, skill, punching power, defense, etc. Heck, Klitshcko’s ring entrance will be 10 times cooler than Pianeta’s walk to the ring. Pianeta is also taking a massive leap forward in competition. A review of his record makes it difficult to determine what his best win is because his opponents are mostly middling heavyweights sticking around for another pay day. If I had to pick one, I would choose Pianeta’s 2012 decision victory over 47 year old Oliver McCall. I think that pretty much sums it up.

Of course, Klitschko could make the fight exciting if his fragile chin is tested or if he lands a monster punch that produces a highlight reel knock out. Either way, it should be quite a scene in Germany. Despite the lack of interest in the United States, the Klitschko brothers regularly pack arenas and soccer stadiums and draw monster television ratings in Europe and especially in Germany. Indeed, there is a peculiar interest in this Klitschko title defense given the circumstances surrounding his next bout. One of the organizations that recognizes Klitschko as champion called a purse bid for a mandatory defense by Klitschko against Alexander Povetkin, an undefeated Russian. Suprisingly, a Russian boxing promoter bid $23,000,000 for the fight and plans to stage it in Moscow. Basically, if Klitschko loses against Pianeta, he will lose out on a $17,499,997 pay day against Povetkin. That is not a misprint… if Klitschko wins, he stands to make $17 million for a fight against Povetkin (a fight, by the way, he should win easily).

The good news for US boxing fans that are preparing their houses for May Day pay per view parties is that they can watch Klitschko – Pianeta live on Epix at 4:30 pm Eastern while they do so. There is a chance that there may be more intrigue in that broadcast than in the May Day pay per view later the same evening.
http://insidefights.com/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2010/05/David_Haye_682x400_449790a.jpg
http://media.insidepulse.com/zones/insidefights/uploads/2009/06/wladimir-klitschko.jpg

Golden Boy promotions has made many statements throughout recent years about changing the status of undercards and stacking them with quality matches. However, their last pay per view offering, “Ring Kings” (which featured Floyd Mayweather defeating Miguel Cotto) featured two mismatches, Saul “Canelo” Alvarez against a shot and smaller Shane Mosley and prospect Jessie Vargas against the smaller, shot and unwilling to exchange Steve Forbes, and a fight that might not even be approved for an ESPN2 undercard, Carlos Quintana against Deandre Latimore. For Saturday’s “May Day” event headlined by Floyd Mayweather defending the welterweight championship against Robert Guerrero, Golden Boy has attempted to improve its undercard offering.

The televised co-feature will have Daniel Ponce de Leon (44-4) defend his WBC featherweight title against former bantamweight and junior featherweight titlist Abner Mares (25-0-1). This is a quality fight. Ponce de Leon is a two division titlist and his four losses are all to quality opponents, Celestino Caballero, Juan Manuel Lopez, Yuriorkis Gamboa and Adrien Broner. Lopez was the only one to stop him. On the other hand, Ponce de Leon gave the much larger Broner fits in a March 2011 bout. He is a southpaw with tremendous punching power and he won the title by defeating the well-regarded Johnny Gonzalez. Mares, unable to secure a bout at 122 pounds with Nonito Donaire, is moving up for an opportunity to win his third title. He is a young undefeated pressure fighter with good boxing skills, decent power and an excellent chin. Mares also has quality wins over Vic Darchinyan, Joseph Agbeko and Anselmo Moreno. It should be an exciting fight. However, given Ponce de Leon’s southpaw stance and rudimentary boxing skills and Mares pressure style, it could be an awkward fight. Additionally, there is a chance of an accidental headbut ending the proceedings early. If the fighters can avoid that though, we will learn if Mares can handle 126 pounds or if Ponce de Leon can obtain a signature victory.

Another televised undercard fight will be brought to us by Mayweather Promotions. Their fighter, J’Leon Love (15-0) will face off against Gabriel Rosado (21-6). Love is a middleweight prospect taking a big step up in competition. That he gets to have the step up fight on the biggest event of the year just shows that it is good to be friends with Mayweather. Seriously though, while Leon has good boxing skills, he does not have much power and his best win is over Derrick Findley. Rosado, on the other hand, has beaten very good opposition (Jesus Soto Karass, Sechew Powell, Kassim Ouma) and has losses to top level opposition (Gennady Golovkin, Alfredo Angulo, Fernando Guerrero). He has good power but is a brawler at heart. He should be able to extend Love to his limit unless the beating he took from Golovkin just over three months ago took too much out of him. This is another competitive fight for the televised undercard.

The first televised fight will likely not be competitive. It features former bantamweight titlist Leo Santa Cruz (23-0-1) moving up to 122 pounds to face Alexander Munoz (36-4). Last year, Santa Cruz basically leaped from prospect to world titlist and contender for fighter of the year. He fought five times, going from un-televised undercard to headlining on CBS, and captured a title. He also showcased an all action style that is combined with good boxing skills. In other words, Santa Cruz is the real deal and it is always a pleasure to watch him fight. Munoz, however, is not likely to put up much of a fight. He spent most of his career at 115 pounds and only moved up to 118 pounds in 2010. At 118, he lost a title challenge to Koki Kameda, a light punching Japanese stylist, who dropped him in the final round. Munoz was then out of boxing for two years before returning in November to beat a fighter with a record of 12-35-2. Now he has to take on a strong young pressure fighter in his prime. This is not a good formula for a thrilling fight.

Overall though, the undercard should produce some good fights. That is more that could have been said about most prior boxing undercards.

So the question is: how did Guerrero separate himself and get to this point? Here are the highlights and the two interesting no decisions of Guerrero’s interesting career:

Higlight #1: vs. Gamaliel Diaz I and II, December 2, 2005, June 25, 2006

In 2005, Guerrero was an undefeated prospect on his way to a title shot. Gamaliel Diaz, a supposed journeyman with 5 losses at the time, had different ideas. Diaz though, lost those five fights in his first 8 bouts and rebounded to win fights not only in Mexico but also in Japan. He also used a pressure fighting style and during the first bout, it seemed as if Guerrero was not ready to deal with it. The fight went 12 rounds and Diaz was awarded a split-decision victory.

Boxing history is filled with prospects who never reach the heights expected to be reached after suffering their first defeat. Guerrero quickly rebounded from his first defeat to knock out a journeyman and then accepted a rematch with Diaz. This time, Guerrero was prepared and dominated Diaz. He scored a knockdown in the 1^st round and stopped Diaz in the 5^th round. It was an impressive way to avenge a defeat and set a signal that Guerrero was not a prospect to give up on.

No Decision #1: vs. Orlando Salido, November 4, 2006

Following the Diaz knock out, Guerrero won a featherweight belt from Erik Aiken and then agreed to a defense two months later against another Mexican pressure fighter. This time, however, he would fight Orlando Salido who would go onto later fame as a featherweight titlist with knock out victories over Lopez. In this fight, Guerrero would once again show an inability to deal with a pressure fighter as Salido would dominate the fight and win a unanimous decision. After the fight, it was revealed that Salido tested positive for steroids and the result was changed to a no contest. Given the steroid situation and Salido’s later highlights, this fight can actually be looked at as a positive for Guerrero.

Highlight #2: vs. Martin Honorio, November 3, 2007

This fight is significant not so much for the actual fight, which was a first round knock out victory for Guerrero, but for the circumstances surrounding it. Indeed, Guerrero got on a roll after the Salido debacle and even reclaimed his featherweight belt by traveling to Denmark and knocking out the hometown fighter. Immediately prior to the Honorio fight, though, Guerrero received news that would change not only his career but his life. He learned that his wife Casey was diagnosed with cancer. One would imagine that such news would throw a fighter’s focus completely off and indeed, no one would have complained had Guerrero pulled out of the fight. Instead, Guerrero got a quick knock out and immediately returned home to tend to his wife. His ability to box while dealing with such a situation showed that Guerrero has mental abilities that at least match his physical ones.

No Decision #2: vs. Daud Yordan, March 7, 2009

Following a knockout of Jason Litzau, Guerrero endured an almost year long layoff caused by his successful attempt to extricate himself from his promotional agreement with Dan Goosen. It took legal proceedings but Guerrero became a free agent and then signed an exclusive promotion agreement with Golden Boy Promotions. It was a move, in hindsight, that was a spectacular success as all Mayweather opponents since 2006 have been Golden Boy fighters.

During the layoff, Guerrero announced he was moving up to the junior lightweight division. After getting Guerrero a quick knockout victory on the untelevised undercard of Shane Mosley’s destruction of Antonio Margarito, Golden Boy set up an HBO televised fight for Guerrero in his home region of Northern California against undefeated Indonesian Daud Yordan. It was thought that this would be an easy win for Guerrero as Yordan was largely untested featherweight and had never fought outside of Asia. “The best laid plans” and all that, Yordan showed during the first round that he would not be a pushover and gave Guerrero a whole lot of problems. Early in the second round, an accidental headbutt caused a cut over Guerrero’s eye. The referee and doctor took a look and appeared willing to let the fight continue. When they asked Guerrero about his condition, he gave answers that appeared to many observers that he did not want to continue. The fight was then stopped and a no decision was declared. Despite the mental toughness Guerrero showed before and after this fight, some will always point to this bout and say Guerrero quit.

Highlight #3: vs. Michael Katsidis, April 9, 2011

Guerrero would go on to win a 130 pound title and then move up to the lightweight division. His time at 135 pounds included victories over Vincente Escobedo and Joel Casamayor and continued television exposure. It all led to co-feature bout against Michael Katsidis for two interim titles on the Erik Morales – Marcos Maidana pay per view card. Katsidis was known as a “blood and guts” warrior who also possessed good punching power. He was also coming off an unsuccessful challenge of Juan Manuel Marquez where he dropped the Mexican legend early in the fight and he gave Marquez a very tough fight. Against Guerrero, Katsidis could not use his power effectively. Rather, it was Guerrero that used his power and boxing skills to soundly defeat the Australian warrior. At the time, things were looking very good for Guerrero’s career and a move to the junior welterweight division was set with a bout against Marcos Maidana. A torn rotator cuff and a subsequent surgery would cancel that bout and keep Guerrero out of the ring for 15 months.

Highlight #4: vs. Selcuk Aydin, July 28, 2012

During the 15 months out of the ring, Guerrero’s public relations team began an all-out assault on the media in the hopes of getting a fight against Floyd Mayweather. The boxing media largely greeted Guerrero’s challenge to the pound for pound elite and welterweight champion with laughter. Indeed, such a response made sense. Although he won titles in two weight classes and interim titles in a third weight class, Guerrero had never fought above 138 pounds. Moreover, despite the victories noted above, Guerrero had yet to obtain a signature victory over an elite opponent.

In order to silence the critics on the issue of not fighting at Mayweather’s weight, Guerrero agreed to move to welterweight division and signed to face Selcuk Aydin. Although not well known in the US, Aydin was the WBC’s number one welterweight contender and was undefeated. It was thought to be a tough fight for Guerrero given the 15 month layoff and the jump up two weight classes.

Indeed, it was a rough fight in spurts. Even though Guerrero’s boxing skills and volume punching were winning him rounds, it did not seem that he was able to hurt Aydin. In the middle and late rounds, Aydin opened up a little more and was able to land some power punches. To his credit, Guerrero took them very well. In the end, Guerrero won a unanimous decision and proved he was a real welterweight. Now he just needed a significant victory.

Highlight #5: vs. Andre Berto, November 24, 2012

To obtain that signature victory, Guerrero agreed to face Andre Berto for the interim WBC welterweight title. Berto was known as a fighter with good boxing skills, decent power and excellent speed. He was a foremer WBC welterweight titlist with only one loss which was a close decision loss to Victor Ortiz in a fight of the year candidate (and which coincidentally led to Ortiz fighting Mayweather). Berto followed up that fight by winning another welterweight title against Jan Zavek but then having a remtach with Ortiz cancelled because he tested positive for a performance enhancing drug. Both Ortiz and Berto needed an impressive performance and, as such, their bout was one that boxing fans looked forward to.

Perhaps because the stakes were so high, both fighters turned in huge efforts in a rough and tumble fight. But it was the former featherweight, Guerrero, who started fast and was able to drop Berto in both the first and second rounds. Even more surprising, it was the former featherweight who exhibited greater strength while the two fighters engaged in a lot of rough in-fighting throughout the fight. Although Berto fought well after the knockdowns, Guerrero’s stregnth and boxing ability led him to a unanimous decision victory.

Guerrero now has proved he is a true welterweight with not only a signature victory but also a number of quality victories. Now the question is has this career prepared him to face the best pound for pound fighter in the world. On Saturday night from Las Vegas, we will find out.
http://insidefights.com/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2010/05/floyd-mayweather-jr.jpg
http://insidefights.com/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2010/05/floyd-mayweather-jr-120×120.jpg

It is well documented that as the son of a fighter who once lost to “Sugar” Ray Leonard and the nephew of fighters who lost to Julio Cesar Chavez, Sr. and Oscar de la Hoya, Mayweather was born to be a boxer. But the great – good issue can be traced back to his amateur days. In the 1996 Olympics, Mayweather was a favorite to capture not only a gold medal, but also the award for best boxer at the games (which included future professional standouts such as Wladimir Klitschko, Antonio Tarver and Fernando Vargas). In the tournament, Mayweather became the first US fighter to beat a Cuban in the Olympics in 20 years yet he only received a bronze medal after a controversial loss in the semi-finals of the tournament. Outside of the ring during his time as an amateur, Mayweather often says that he lived in very bad neighborhoods and never had any money. His father disputes that claim and numerous boxing writers have written over the years that this claim is inaccurate as boxing managers such as Shelly Finkel provided Mayweather and his family with money during this time. In other words, if Mayweather were in the NCAA, he would certainly be guilty of violations. As you can see, good-great or otherwise is a question that starts early with Mayweather.

Great but not Good: vs. Diego “Chico” Corrales, January 20, 2001

Forget the Olympics, the promotional vignettes, the wins over overmatched opponents and the title winning effort against Genaro Hernandez; this is the moment a star was born. Coming into this bout, both Mayweather and Corrales were young, undefeated title holders in the junior lightweight division. Corrales was a feared boxer-puncher with a good amateur background. The oddsmakers listed this fight as a close one and many experts and boxing writers were picking Corrales to hand Mayweather his first defeat since the Olympics. Some even predicted that Corrales would blast Mayweather into unconsciousness.

Clearly, that did not happen. Rather, Mayweather put on a brilliant performance which culminated in five knockdowns of Corrales. Indeed, the HBO broadcasters described Mayweather’s performance of the perfect blend of the defensive style that Mayweather learned as an amateur from his father, Floyd Mayweather, Sr., and the offensive weapons developed by his professional trainer, Uncle Roger Mayweather. Corrales, whose fans say he was weight-drained, was simply unable to deal with the speed, power and varied attack that Mayweather brought. After the fifth knockdown in the tenth round, Corrales corner stopped the slaughter.

Simply put, this was a great performance against a top opponent. Indeed, some will say that to this day, it is Mayweather’s best performance or the most crowd-pleasing he has been. Great is indeed the word,

So what wasn’t good about it? This is Mayweather we are talking about ; so of course, there were outside the ring issues. First, during the lead up to the bout, Corrales was arrested for domestic violence. Never one to let an opportunity to tweak an opponent or get some publicity fall by the wayside, Mayweather immediately dedicated the fight to all battered and abused women. Not long after that, the mother of Mayweather’s children would cite him for abuse and, eventually, Mayweather would plead guilty to charges of violence against the woman which resulted in a stay in jail. The second issue outside of the ring around this time was Mayweather’s relationship with HBO. Although he had an exclusive contract with the network, he was unhappy with the large purses he was receiving. Instead of rationally explaining his view of the situation, he publicly called HBO out for paying him “slave wages.” Indeed, in light of a career making performance in the ring, Mayweather was revealing himself to be a problem outside of it.

Good but not Great: vs. Jose Luis Castillo I and II, April 20 and December 7, 2002

What could possibly be wrong about winning a title in a second weight division in a good fight against Jose Luis Castillo and then dominating him in the rematch? Well, when it sets a completely different tone for the rest of what was looking to be an exciting career filled with incredible fights an performances, that is what could be seen as not so good.

What will always be remembered about the first Mayweather-Castillo fight is the controversy in the scoring. Forgotten is that it was a good fight and Mayweather survived some tough moments to eek out a decision victory to snatch the WBC lightweight title from Castillo. But the controversy will always be front and center. Scoring for HBO, Larry Merchant had it a draw. Many ringside observers felt that Castillo’s pressure and body punching were enough to carry the day. Those scorers will also point to numerous instances in the fight were Mayweather went to the ropes and was ineffective in fighting off the ropes. Regardless, Mayweather should be given credit for a good performance against a prime Castillo and for taking an immediate rematch with him.

The rematch was largely unremarkable at the time. Mayweather boxed, moved, boxed, moved and that is about it He never let Castillo get close to him and won a unanimous decision in a largely unexciting fight. Following the fight though, it becomes remarkable. Mayweather was no doubt shaken by the closeness of the first fight. He must have felt that he was very near losing his beloved undefeated record. As such, rather than use his offense and boxing skills to make an exciting fight or look for a knockout, he simply played it safe in the second bout and cruised to a decision. Not only would he adopt a safety first boxing style in the ring, but he would adopt a safety first style in selecting opponents. Indeed, some of his next few rivals would include the lightly regarded Victoriano Sosa, Phillip N’Dou, DeMarcus Corley, Henry Brusseles and a shot Sharmba Mitchell.

Great but not Good: vs. Arturo Gatti, June 25, 2005

While fighting no-hopers after the Castillo bout, Mayweather and his the-promoter, Top Rank, were angling for a big-money fight against WBC junior welterweight titlist, Arturo “Thunder” Gatti. Gatti, who is to be inducted in the International Boxing Hall of Fame this year, was a beloved action fighter who had a title, was coming off of the acclaimed trilogy with Micky Ward, was an HBO ratings darling and was a fighter who easily sold out Boardwalk Hall in Atlantic City, New Jersey anytime he laced up the gloves. Despite those accomplishments, Gatti was also a vulnerable fighter who lost fights, sometimes by knock out, got dropped by Ward, whose idea of defense was blocking shots with his face and who was known to have trouble making the 140 pound weight limit. Indeed, minutes before the fight, Max Kellerman, on his first televised appearance on HBO, called the upcoming Mayweather-Gatti fight the “biggest pay per view mismatch since Lennox Lewis vs. Mike Tyson.” Mayweather was clearly thinking this was his first step to pay per view stardom.

In order to build to this fight, Mayweather was essentially “Proto-Money.” Stated otherwise, he began using some of the areas of his personality to promote the Gatti fight which are now recognized as staples of his presentation today. For example, Mayweather was relentless in his trash-talking against the beloved Gatti. He called Gatti a “C-Level fighter” and chided the media for focusing on his out-of-the-ring issues while accusing them of ignoring Gatti’s own issues with partying, alcohol and problems with the police. In short, this was not the “Pretty Boy” Mayweather that had been presented by Top Rank before. This was more aggressive, antagnostic and, most notably, materialistic Mayweather that would set the stage for what would to come.

The pro-wrestling villain game that Mayweather played leading up to the fight even showed up on fight night. His entrance to the fight wasn’t a ring walk; rather, he sat on a chair which was carried to the ring. He wore fur trunks. During the first round, Gatti turned to complain to the ref about an elbow and Mayweather did not hesitate. He slammed Gatti with a quick combination which dropped him (it would be very fair to assume Victor Ortiz did not watch this fight).

Following that moment, it wasn’t so much of a fight as it was an execution. Mercifully , Gatti’s trainer, Buddy McGirt stopped the fight after six one-sided rounds.

At the time, it was thought that Mayweather was in line for an epic run at 140 pounds. Ricky Hatton had just won the junior welterweight championship from long-time division champion Kostya Tszyu. Miguel Cotto had just begun his run of main events at Madison Square Garden. Although Mayweather would eventually face Hatton and Cotto, it was disappointing that he avoided them at this time, like he had avoided Acelino Freitas and Joel Casamayor at lower weight divisions, to move up to welterweight. However, the success of the pay per view (it sold 350,000 buys) showed that Mayweather was getting the power to call his own shots.

Good but not Great: vs. Carlos Baldomir, November 4, 2006

Mayweather’s move to the welterweight division initially made no sense. He took on Mitchell in Portland, Oregon and wiped him out in six rounds. Then, he agreed to face 147 pound champion and “frenemy” Zab Judah in a major pay per view event. The only stipulation to the agreed fight was that Judah first had to get through a WBC mandatory defense against an Argentine floor sweeper that no one had ever heard of. But Judah being Judah, he promptly lost a decision in his hometown and gave up the WBC belt to Carlos Baldomir. Mayweather, being the money fighter, had interesting options at that point. He could fight Baldomir for the title; he could face Antonio Margarito, the “most avoided fighter in boxing”; or he could have gone back down to junior welterweight to face the popular fighters in that division. Instead, Mayweather chose to go on with the Judah fight; most likely because Judah took less of a payday and found some way for the IBF to allow him to keep its 147 pound title. The fight between Mayweather and Judah was somewhat interesting as Judah took the early rounds and landed a flush left hand which drove Mayweather back. However, Mayweather slowly took over and dominated the last ¾ of the fight and smartly stayed out of a melee caused by Judah’s mental unraveling.

Following the win, hardcore boxing fans were salivating at a potential match-up between the top of the pound for pound list, Mayweather, and Margarito whose reputation as an avoided fighter grew his legend beyond that of an aggressive Mexican fighter with heavy hands and a granite chin. Amazingly, promoter Bob Arum wanted to make the fight and offered Mayweather a then career-high payday of $8,000,000. Mayweather, with the help of his “advisor” Al Haymon, rejected the offer, bought out his contract with Top Rank and instead took a fight with Baldomir. All of a sudden, Mayweather was all about becoming the lineal welterweight champion.

The fight itself was an utter bore. No one in their right mind picked Baldomir to win. Perhaps because Baldomir was known for having an unbreakable chin and because he was bigger than Mayweather, the pound for pound king was content to pot shot and move his way to winning every round. The boos rained down and celebrities in attendance such as Michael Jordan left the arena during the championship rounds but Mayweather had his win. The most interesting thing about the fight was in the post-fight interview when Mayweather called out de la Hoya and claimed he would retire if he did not get the fight.

Great but not Good: vs. Oscar de la Hoya, May 5, 2007

When the fight between the pound for pound ruler and boxing’s most-popular crossover star was made, it was labeled as some as “the fight to save boxing.” As if one fight could bring a sport which was seen by smaller and smaller audiences due to its marriage with premium cable networks and pay per view back to the mainstream.

To his credit, Mayweather did his part. And boy did he do his “part.” His promotion of this fight, where he relished paying a role akin to a WWE “heel” or villain, was the birth of “Money.” He would no longer pretend to be “Pretty Boy” Floyd, a sort of de la Hoya attempt at major cross-over appeal. Rather, he threw money to the audience at press conferences, repeatedly took shots at de la Hoya and even went so far as to steal one of de la Hoya’s bags. All of this was captured by HBO’s cameras for the inaugural edition of “24/7,” a reality show that was simply a promotional tool for the fight. Mayweather used the show to become a much bigger star than his prior fights allowed him to become. He even had his family and friends in on the deal: trainer Roger Mayweather was shown to be a wise trainer who feuded with everyone and took great delight in talking trash about de la Hoya’s trainer for the fight, Freddie Roach. Rapper 50 Cent joined the fun in riding segways around Mayweather’s “Big Boy Mansion.” The centerpiece of the show was Mayweather’s contentious relationship with his father, who formerly trained de la Hoya.

To say Mayweather’s act was great for the fight is an understatement. The pay per view titled, “The World Awaits,” easily broke the record for the most pay per views ever sold and the record stands today. Beyond that, the “24/7” style of promoting fights has been used not only in promoting every major boxing pay per view fight since but it has also been adopted in one form or another by Major League Baseball, UFC, WWE and other promotional giants. It says here that Mayweather can take credit for that trend. Indeed, since 2007, boxing pay per views, which had been doing buyrates generally below 1 million buys, have increased and shows like “24/7” and Showtime’s version, “All Access” are now seen on CBS, ESPN, CNN, various internet sites, etc. With the increased popularity of boxing over the past few years, could it be that Mayweather-de la Hoya really was the fight that saved boxing.

By the way, the fight itself was boring. Much like the Baldomir fight, Mayweather was content to pot shot and keep moving away from de la Hoya. The “Golden Boy” threw a lot of punches but they were largely blocked or missed by a mile. One of the three judges was insane enough to give de la Hoya the fight but this was another fight where Mayweather’s defensive brilliance was enough to win the fight yet not excite.

Good but not Great: the “Retirement,” December 8, 2007 to September 19, 2009

Immediately following the de la Hoya victory, Mayweather said he was done with boxing and would retire. A little over a month later, however, Hatton would knock out Castillo and call out “Money” for a showdown of unbeatens and Mayweather began counting his money. The two quickly agreed to meet. Their version of “24/7” was arguably the best one as Hatton is/was an interesting personality and Mayweather’s shtick had not yet become tiresome. Then, in Las Vegas, thousands of Brits arrived to support Hatton and created an amazing atmosphere. When Mayweather came out to “Born in the USA,” the electricity was definitely tangible. The fight was sloppy, given Hatton’s style, but Mayweather banked the rounds until landing a nasty left hook on a charging Hatton. Mayweather’s knock out win was impressive and certainly something to build on.

Instead, Mayweather simply went home. He cited being tired of boxing which he had been doing all of his life and other outside interests as his reasons. However, whispers around the boxing community, most likely based on some “24/7” footage were that injuries and pain to Mayweather’s hands were the likely cause of the retirement.

The retirement became most notable for numerous stories about Mayweather owing the IRS millions of dollars in back taxes. Most cite his tax debt as the reason Mayweather came back to boxing although his love of the spotlight was likely a driving force as well. When word started circulating that Mayweather would come back, fans began clamoring for a showdown with the new pound for pound superstar, Manny Pacquiao. As we all know, that fight never materialized. Rather, Mayweather would take fights with opponents who were much smaller (Juan Manuel Marquez), older/shot (Shane Mosley) or Victor Ortiz (honestly, there may not be a word in the English language to effectively describe Ortiz). Mayweather largely dominated those fights (save for a good right hand landed by Mosley in round two of their May 2010 bout) but fought in a mostly unexciting manner and never pressed the action or turned up the heat in order to get a knockout. Well, except for the “sucker punch” that ended the Ortiz bout. The most notable moment of those post-retirement fights, other than strange finish to the Ortiz bout, was Mayweather’s shouting match with HBO’s Larry Merchant in the post-fight interview following the Ortiz knock out.

Great but not Good: vs. Miguel Cotto, May 5, 2012

As noted above, Mayweather has been great, good and not good. Following the Ortiz fight though, the bad Mayweather was in full effect. He was arrested in Las Vegas multiple times for everything from refusing to provide identification to security at his gated community to assaulting the mother of his children in front of his kids and stealing their mobile phones. Mayweather eventually plead guilty to assault and was sentenced to 90 days in jail. His sentence was supposed to commence in April 2012 but Mayweather negotiated and finalized a fight against Puerto Rican superstar Cotto for May 5, 2012 in Las Vegas. Remarkably, the economic incentive of a Mayweather fight for Las Vegas was so enormous that the Judge overseeing Mayweather’s case postponed his jail sentence until after the Cotto bout! Following the fight, Mayweather did serve his time although his request to be served bottled water in the can was denied.

Despite the ridiculousness swirling outside of the ring, Mayweather’s challenge for Cotto’s 154 pound title was an overwhelming success. Although the “24/7” was not overly compelling (Mayweather’s schtick has long since become bland and Cotto is, well, bland), the pay per view sold 1.5 million buys making it the second best selling non-heavyweight pay per view of all time. Additionally, and somewhat surprisingly, the fight was much more exciting than previous Mayweather outings. Cotto’s intelligent pressure style blended well with Mayweather’s counter-punching. Moreover, Mayweather’s style has evolved away from one using a lot of movement into one that involves standing in the pocket and making his opponents miss (usually by blocking or shoulder-rolling). Whether it is a designed style change or one necessitated by Mayweather’s age, it seems to have led to a more-exciting Mayweather. During the fight, Cotto’s pressure led to him winning a few rounds which, in addition to producing exchanges, created drama in the late rounds. Mayweather negated that drama by sweeping the final rounds and claiming another title.

Following the Cotto fight and after long negotiations, Mayweather announced that he was moving to Showtime pay per view with a 6 fight deal beginning with the Guerrero fight. The question now is will this deal lead to great fights or just good ones? Will Mayweather be great outside of the ring or will he continue to be not good? Saturday night will go a long way to answering those questions.

http://insidefights.com/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2010/05/floyd-mayweather-jr-120×120.jpg
http://insidefights.com/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2010/05/floyd-mayweather-jr.jpg

The final arrival of Saul “Canelo” Alvarez as an elite caliber fighter has been something boxing fans have been waiting for in the past several years. After a dismantling of Shane Mosley underneath Mayweather/Cotto, before an even more devastating dismantling against Josesito Lopez, Alvarez finds himself in a unique spot. He’s not quite an elite, pound for pound talent just yet. But he’s no longer just a prospect on the rise, either. He’s in that growing phase of his career, where he has to show that when the rubber meets the road he can thrive.

He’s exceptionally close to graduating from the finishing school of Contender College, and into his post graduate work at Elite Fighter University. This weekend’s matchup with Austrin Trout marks what should be his graduating ceremony, the moment where we point to years from now as being the start of Canelo’s ascendance into that rarified air of elite boxers regardless of weight class.

So far Alvarez has had a tough but manageable road to being the WBC Light Middleweight champion. His last two fights have been fighters he was supposed to beat and did so in spectacular fashion; Shane Mosley doesn’t get taken apart like that by mediocre fighters and Josesito Lopez hadn’t been knocked down, much less stopped, before he fought Alvarez. Both of those wins mean something and Alvarez so far passes the eyeball test of whether or not he’s an elite talent. We know how good he is right now, and how good he could be, but his ceiling isn’t in view yet.

Alvarez is still in the star-building mode … but not for long.

There’s always something about both of those fights that doesn’t make it feel like Alvarez is an elite fighter, just a very good one. Mosley isn’t shopworn but he’s at the tail end of his career. The win didn’t feel as big after Mosley was dismantled by Mayweather and Pacquiao after drawing with Sergio Mora. It’s a tough stretch of fights but Mosley didn’t look elite anymore. Mosley was more of a name than a talent when Alvarez fought him; it was a good win, ala Mayweather over De La Hoya, but made more to build one fighter than as a competitive matchup of elite talents. That ship had sailed prior to Mosley/Alvarez for the man called “Sugar.”

Lopez was an unexpected opponent after he upset Victor Ortiz; Ortiz/Alvarez was the fight that was viewed as more profitable and being built towards. Alvarez’s big win was expected but it didn’t make you think “Canelo could beat Mayweather” right after like a similar win over Ortiz could’ve. It felt like “Canelo just tore up another guy,” and nothing more, which is a shame because Lopez is a great fighter in his own right. Alvarez’s win was special but it didn’t feel as special as it could have.

Right now Alvarez’s career has been managed exceptionally well and he’s fought accordingly. It’s not much of a stretch to see him taking over the mantle of Mayweather/Pacquiao as the best fighter alive sooner than later. He can’t take any steps back and from here on out as he’s potentially a handful of fights away from taking on Mayweather or Pacquiao in what should be a massively successful fight of its own right. Right now we have to find out whether or not he’s ready for a fight of that magnitude and that’s where Austin Trout comes in.

Now we find out whether or not the red-headed Mexican fighter’s hype has been warranted. This weekend is the final step, the final fight before every fight is against someone who’s a tough out and not designed to do “x” in his career. This isn’t to show he can handle a power puncher, or someone with great movement … this is to determine whether or not he can take that final step into elite level territory.

Austin Trout is boxing’s equivalent of a final exam for Alvarez.

It’s why this weekend’s fight is easily the most intriguing of a fairly stacked combat sports weekend. This is what could be the start of Saul Alvarez’s ascendance to the top of the boxing world or the latest in a long line of boxing hopefuls who’ve fallen just when their star seemed to be burning brightest.
http://insidefights.com/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2012/12/austin-trout-e1354457886475-120×120.jpg
http://insidefights.com/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2013/04/box_chavez_lopez_06-e1366248906299.jpg